Seahawks @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Washington Commanders

Weather at kickoff60°F9 mphgusts 32DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Seattle Seahawks

2-0 · Power #1

final

Final

Washington Commanders

0-2 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

SEA -8.5

✓ WSH W

Total

40.5

▲ Over · 64 pts

Model before kickoff

SEA 25–16 WSH

✗ SEA (79%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -3.5

CloseSEA -8.5

Total46.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -3.5

5 → SEA

CloseSEA -8.5

5 pts toward Seattle Seahawks

Total

Open46.5

▼ 6

Close40.5

Down 6 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -3.5 · closed SEA -8.5 · moved 5 toward SEAmodel SEA -11

model SEA -11

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 40% (64 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 34% (47 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -3.5

CloseSEA -8.5

Total46.5 → 40.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 6 games most like SEA as an 8.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: WSH won 33–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 6 similar games. 64 points went over 40.5, as in 4 of 6.

Favorite won

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

2 of 633%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

4 of 667%

Normal range · usually 61%

Only 6 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 8; 45.8 points a game (usually 47). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 6 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	BUF @ NE 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	25–29	L	O39.5
Loose	BAL @ ARI 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-9.5	31–24	L	O45
Loose	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5
Loose	DET @ WSH 2025 · Week 10 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	44–22	W	O48.5
Loose	KC @ DEN 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & season form	-7	9–24	L	U45.5
Loose	KC @ LV 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-9	31–17	W	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA PW	1-0-1	100%	1-0	1-0-1
WSH WL	1-1	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: SEA away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA UU	0-2	0%	2-0
WSH OO	2-0	100%	0-2

Went over in Q3. Of 176 earlier overs in games with totals 37.5–43.5, 27% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	10-0 100%	7-2-1 78%	4-6 40%
WSH	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SEA 7–9 WSH WSH leads · 16 games since 2001 · WSH has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2025	Seattle Seahawks 38 @ Washington Commanders 14	SEA -2.5	SEA W
Nov 12 2023	Washington Commanders 26 @ Seattle Seahawks 29	SEA -6	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA+3.2 →+4.9▲ 1.7#1

WSH−1.6 →−1.9▼ 0.3#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

SEA

Longer bar = better

WSH

#13

Offense

Even

#15

Defense

◀ SEA better

#26

+1.5 #4

Turnovers

◀ SEA better

−0.5 #22

58 plays #22

Pace

WSH faster ▶

67 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SEA offense

	SEA off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #17	30.5 #27	SEA
Yards / play	5.79 #8	6.07 #26	SEA
EPA / play	+0.11 #10	+0.15 #27	SEA
Success rate	44% #16	46% #22	SEA

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	WSH off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #18	8.5 #2	SEA
Yards / play	5.10 #21	3.75 #1	SEA
EPA / play	+0.06 #11	−0.20 #4	SEA
Success rate	47% #9	38% #4	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

SEA scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	3.5	0.0	3.5	6.5	12.0	18.5
WSH allowed	5.0	10.5	15.5	6.5	8.5	15.0

WSH scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	1.5	8.0	9.5	1.5	10.0	11.5
SEA allowed	0.0	7.0	7.0	1.5	0.0	1.5

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.