Chargers @ Seahawks: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Seattle Seahawks

Weather at kickoff62°F2 mphDryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

0-3 · Power #25

final

Final

Seattle Seahawks

2-1 · Power #1

▲ winner

Closing spread

SEA -7

Push

Total

43.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

LAC 18–25 SEA

✓ SEA (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -3

CloseSEA -7

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSEA -3

4 → SEA

CloseSEA -7

4 pts toward Seattle Seahawks

Total

Open45.5

▼ 2

Close43.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SEA -3 · closed SEA -7 · moved 4 toward SEAmodel SEA -8

model SEA -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 74%, covered 50% (112 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 55% (58 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSEA -3

CloseSEA -7

Total45.5 → 43.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 7-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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This game: SEA won 30–23; the favorite pushed, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 43.5, as in 8 of 10.

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.1 against an average line of 7.3; 53.1 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 8 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Close	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar situation	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Loose	IND vs LV 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	40–6	W	U46.5
Loose	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Loose	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar situation & total	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Loose	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar total & rest	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Loose	DEN vs CLE 2024 · Week 13 · loose	-6.5	41–32	W	O41.5
Loose	PIT vs CLE 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest	-6.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Loose	LAR vs SF 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar total	-8.5	23–26	L	O43.5
Loose	PHI vs WSH 2023 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8.5	34–31	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LLL	0-3	0%	0-1	0-1
SEA PWL	1-1-1	50%	0-0-1	1-1-1

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; SEA home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUU	0-3	0%	0-3
SEA UUO	1-2	33%	2-1

Went over in Q4. Of 245 earlier overs in games with totals 40.5–46.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
SEA	9-1 90%	6-3-1 67%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 5–8 SEA SEA leads · 13 games since 1999 · SEA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.6 →−1.3▼ 1.9#22

SEA+3.2 →+4.9▲ 1.7#1

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

LAC

Longer bar = better

SEA

#25

Offense

SEA better ▶

#11

#19

Defense

SEA better ▶

0.0 #18

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #19

59 plays #23

Pace

SEA faster ▶

60 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	LAC off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	14.7 #29	16.7 #5	SEA
Yards / play	5.23 #16	3.83 #1	SEA
EPA / play	−0.19 #31	−0.16 #3	SEA
Success rate	41% #24	36% #2	SEA

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SEA offense

	SEA off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	25.0 #14	25.3 #20	SEA
Yards / play	6.16 #6	5.37 #17	SEA
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	+0.02 #18	SEA
Success rate	46% #11	45% #19	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	5.7 #6	2.3 #30	8.0 #26	5.7 #13	1.0 #32	6.7 #31
SEA allowed	2.3 #7	8.0 #23	10.3 #13	3.3 #6	3.0 #5	6.3 #4

SEA scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	2.3 #25	3.3 #28	5.7 #29	6.7 #10	12.7 #1	19.3 #3
LAC allowed	2.3 #7	8.7 #27	11.0 #15	3.3 #6	11.0 #32	14.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.