Chiefs @ Raiders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Las Vegas Raiders · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Kansas City Chiefs

3-0 · Power #2

▲ winner

Final

Las Vegas Raiders

3-0 · Power #23

final

Closing spread

KC -3.5

✓ LV W

Total

47.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

KC 24–20 LV

✓ KC (63%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -5.5

CloseKC -3.5

Total43.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenKC -5.5

2 → LV

CloseKC -3.5

2 pts toward Las Vegas Raiders

Total

Open43.5

▲ 4

Close47.5

Up 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened KC -5.5 · closed KC -3.5 · moved 2 toward LVmodel KC -5

model KC -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (159 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the underdog: that team covered 59% (30 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenKC -5.5

CloseKC -3.5

Total43.5 → 47.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 3.5-point road favorite at LV, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: KC won 30–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 47.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 3.3; 42.4 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAC @ LV 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation	-3.5	20–9	W	U46.5
Close	NE @ DEN 2025 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	10–7	L	U43.5
Close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar rest	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Loose	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · loose	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Loose	JAX @ IND 2025 · Week 17 · loose · similar total & rest	-4.5	23–17	W	U48.5
Loose	DET @ GB 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–14	W	U48.5
Loose	PHI @ WSH 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest	-4.5	33–36	L	O47.5
Loose	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · loose	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Loose	HOU @ MIN 2024 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2	7–34	L	U46.5
Loose	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · loose	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLW	2-1	67%	1-0	2-1
LV WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	2-0

Venue/role: KC away, as favorite; LV home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UOU	1-2	33%	3-0
LV UUO	1-2	33%	3-0

Went over in Q4. Of 203 earlier overs in games with totals 44.5–50.5, 21% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	2-8 20%
LV	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

KC 36–19 LV KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Kansas City Chiefs 12 @ Las Vegas Raiders 14	KC -3.5	LV W
Oct 19 2025	Las Vegas Raiders 0 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31	KC -13.5	KC W
Nov 29 2024	Las Vegas Raiders 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -13.5	LV W
Oct 27 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 27 @ Las Vegas Raiders 20	KC -8.5	LV W
Dec 25 2023	Las Vegas Raiders 20 @ Kansas City Chiefs 14	KC -11	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+0.7 →+3.4▲ 2.7#2

LV−3.0 →−0.9▲ 2.1#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ KC better

#19

Defense

◀ KC better

+1.0 #4

Turnovers

Even

+1.7 #1

65 plays #10

Pace

Even

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #7	18.0 #8	Even
Yards / play	6.44 #4	5.16 #14	KC
EPA / play	+0.18 #4	−0.18 #2	Even
Success rate	50% #5	42% #11	KC

When LV has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LV off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	29.3 #8	16.7 #3	KC
Yards / play	4.92 #24	4.71 #3	KC
EPA / play	−0.01 #17	−0.09 #6	KC
Success rate	40% #25	38% #4	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #2	7.0 #14	15.0 #5	5.7 #13	6.7 #17	12.3 #10
LV allowed	2.0 #5	6.7 #12	8.7 #7	9.3 #32	0.0 #1	9.3 #8

LV scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	3.3 #23	11.0 #4	14.3 #6	7.7 #7	7.3 #12	15.0 #7
KC allowed	7.0 #31	4.3 #5	11.3 #16	2.0 #1	2.3 #3	4.3 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.