Broncos @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 4 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff91°F6 mphDryWeather watch ›

Denver Broncos

2-1 · Power #16

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

3-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -3

✓ SF W

Total

48.5

▼ Under · 38 pts

Model before kickoff

DEN 21–24 SF

✓ SF (62%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -2.5

CloseSF -3

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -2.5

0.5 → SF

CloseSF -3

0.5 pts toward San Francisco 49ers

Total

Open46.5

▲ 2

Close48.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened SF -2.5 · closed SF -3 · moved 0.5 toward SFmodel SF -5.5

model SF -5.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (196 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3Too few earlier games to rateⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -2.5

CloseSF -3

Total46.5 → 48.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 3-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 10, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 24–14; the favorite covered, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 38 points stayed under 48.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Above normal · usually 62%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 10.5 against an average line of 3.9; 47.9 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF vs JAX 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	47–10	W	O46.5
Close	NE vs LAC 2025 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	16–3	W	U45.5
Close	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	GB vs HOU 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–22	L	U47.5
Loose	NE vs ATL 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-5.5	24–23	L	O45.5
Loose	LAC vs DEN 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	23–20	W	U45.5
Loose	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Loose	DET vs GB 2024 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	34–31	L	O53.5
Loose	BUF vs MIA 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & total	-6.5	30–27	L	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN LWW	2-1	67%	0-1	0-1
SF WWL	2-1	67%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UUO	1-2	33%	2-1
SF UOO	2-1	67%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 36 in the 4th quarter and got 25. 51% of games with totals 45.5–51.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
SF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

DEN 4–4 SF Series tied · 8 games since 2000 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+1.2 →+0.3▼ 0.9#13

SF+0.9 →+3.3▲ 2.4#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

DEN

Longer bar = better

#22

Offense

SF better ▶

#17

Defense

SF better ▶

#12

0.0 #17

Turnovers

Even

0.0 #16

55 plays #30

Pace

Even

54 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	DEN off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #22	16.7 #4	SF
Yards / play	4.97 #23	4.84 #7	SF
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.01 #15	SF
Success rate	41% #22	47% #23	Even

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	32.7 #2	23.3 #17	SF
Yards / play	7.35 #1	5.60 #21	SF
EPA / play	+0.36 #1	+0.05 #21	SF
Success rate	57% #1	42% #10	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.3 #25	1.0 #31	3.3 #32	7.3 #9	9.3 #5	16.7 #6
SF allowed	0.0 #1	6.3 #10	6.3 #2	2.3 #3	8.0 #21	10.3 #13

SF scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	5.7 #6	8.0 #9	13.7 #10	11.3 #1	7.7 #10	19.0 #4
DEN allowed	4.7 #14	8.7 #27	13.3 #23	4.3 #16	5.7 #13	10.0 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.