Jaguars @ Bengals: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Weather at kickoff71°F5 mphDryWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

2-1 · Power #6

▲ winner

Final

Cincinnati Bengals

2-1 · Power #15

final

Closing spread

CIN -2.5

✓ JAX W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

JAX 23–25 CIN

✗ CIN (58%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -2.5

no move

CloseCIN -2.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -2.5 · unchangedmodel JAX -0.5

model JAX -0.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (222 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -2.5

CloseCIN -2.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 2.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: JAX won 22–17 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 51.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 3; 53.1 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAR vs IND 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & situation	-3.5	27–20	W	U49.5
Very close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	KC vs DET 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	30–17	W	U51.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Close	LAR vs SEA 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–19	L	U49.5
Close	MIN vs DET 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-1.5	29–31	L	O50.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Close	MIA vs BUF 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	10–31	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX WLW	2-1	67%	0-1	0-1
CIN WWL	2-1	67%	1-0	1-1

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX OUU	1-2	33%	2-1
CIN OUO	2-1	67%	2-1

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 13. 47% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	8-2 80%	8-2 80%	5-5 50%
CIN	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

JAX 10–9 CIN JAX leads · 19 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 14 2025	Jacksonville Jaguars 27 @ Cincinnati Bengals 31	CIN -3.5	CIN W
Dec 4 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 34 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 31	JAX -10	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+1.4 →+2.9▲ 1.5#7

CIN−1.2 →0.0▲ 1.2#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

JAX

Longer bar = better

CIN

Offense

◀ JAX better

#12

#11

Defense

Even

#12

+1.3 #2

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

+0.7 #10

57 plays #28

Pace

CIN faster ▶

59 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	27.3 #10	21.0 #12	Even
Yards / play	5.51 #11	5.65 #22	JAX
EPA / play	+0.17 #6	−0.09 #5	Even
Success rate	51% #3	42% #9	JAX

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	26.7 #12	12.0 #1	JAX
Yards / play	5.45 #12	5.84 #25	CIN
EPA / play	+0.06 #9	−0.10 #4	JAX
Success rate	44% #15	43% #15	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.7 #14	11.3 #3	16.0 #3	9.0 #4	2.3 #29	11.3 #16
CIN allowed	5.7 #21	4.3 #5	10.0 #9	6.7 #24	4.3 #8	11.0 #15

CIN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	7.0 #4	9.0 #8	16.0 #3	5.3 #15	5.3 #23	10.7 #20
JAX allowed	0.0 #1	2.0 #1	2.0 #1	2.0 #1	8.0 #20	10.0 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.