Dolphins @ Vikings: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 4, 2026)

Sun, Oct 4, 2026, 4:05 PM EDTWeek 4 · at Minnesota Vikings

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Miami Dolphins

0-3 · Power #31

final

Final

Minnesota Vikings

3-0 · Power #8

▲ winner

Closing spread

MIN -10

✓ MIA W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 25 pts

Model before kickoff

MIA 16–25 MIN

✓ MIN (81%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIN -7.5

CloseMIN -10

Total43.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenMIN -7.5

2.5 → MIN

CloseMIN -10

2.5 pts toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open43.5

▼ 5

Close38.5

Down 5 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened MIN -7.5 · closed MIN -10 · moved 2.5 toward MINmodel MIN -7.5

model MIN -7.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 8–12 since 2023: won 74%, covered 45% (53 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 2–3 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (77 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenMIN -7.5

CloseMIN -10

Total43.5 → 38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 5 games most like MIN as a 10-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: MIN won 15–10; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 0 of the 5 similar games. 25 points stayed under 38.5, as in 2 of 5.

Favorite won

5 of 5100%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

5 of 5100%

Above normal · usually 43%

Went over

3 of 560%

Normal range · usually 63%

Only 5 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 24 against an average line of 11.7; 46 points a game (usually 47.3). Of the 3 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 5 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	DEN vs CAR 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar season form	-12.5	28–14	W	O40.5
Loose	PHI vs DAL 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & total	-7.5	41–7	W	O37.5
Loose	NE vs NYJ 2025 · Week 11 · loose	-12.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Loose	PHI vs LV 2025 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & total	-12.5	31–0	W	U36.5
Loose	JAX vs NYJ 2025 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest	-13.5	48–20	W	O40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLL	0-3	0%	0-2	0-3
MIN WWW	3-0	100%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOU	1-2	33%	0-3
MIN OUU	1-2	33%	3-0

Stayed under: it needed 17 in the 4th quarter and got 3. 55% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	4-6 40%	3-6 33%	4-6 40%
MIN	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

MIA 3–5 MIN MIN leads · 8 games since 2000 · MIN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA−1.7 →−3.8▼ 2.1#31

MIN+0.1 →+1.2▲ 1.1#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW3

MIA

Longer bar = better

MIN

#28

Offense

Even

#27

#30

Defense

MIN better ▶

−0.3 #23

Turnovers

MIN better ▶

+1.3 #3

58 plays #25

Pace

◀ MIA faster

56 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	MIA off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	12.0 #32	13.7 #2	MIN
Yards / play	5.04 #20	4.77 #5	MIN
EPA / play	−0.13 #28	−0.18 #1	MIN
Success rate	35% #31	33% #1	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #16	28.7 #28	MIN
Yards / play	4.28 #32	6.10 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.12 #26	+0.16 #30	Even
Success rate	31% #32	50% #31	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.3 #25	4.0 #28	6.3 #28	3.3 #19	2.3 #31	5.7 #31
MIN allowed	6.3 #26	4.3 #4	10.7 #13	2.0 #1	1.0 #2	3.0 #1

MIN scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	5.3 #9	5.7 #19	11.0 #15	2.3 #29	10.3 #2	12.7 #10
MIA allowed	7.0 #30	8.0 #22	15.0 #31	10.3 #32	3.3 #6	13.7 #24

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.