Raiders @ Patriots: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at New England Patriots

Weather at kickoff59°F8 mphgusts 13DryWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

3-1 · Power #23

final

Final

New England Patriots

2-2 · Power #7

▲ winner

Closing spread

NE -8.5

✓ NE W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 62 pts

Model before kickoff

LV 17–25 NE

✓ NE (77%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -8.5

CloseNE -8.5

Total44.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNE -8.5

no move

CloseNE -8.5

No change since the open

Total

Open44.5

▲ 7

Close51.5

Up 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NE -8.5 · unchangedmodel NE -4.5

model NE -4.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 41% (75 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNE -8.5

CloseNE -8.5

Total44.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 2 games most like NE as an 8.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 1, covered 0, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: NE won 45–17; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 2 similar games. 62 points went over 51.5, as in 1 of 2.

Favorite won

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 70%

Favorite covered

0 of 10%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

1 of 250%

Normal range · usually 61%

Only 2 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 1.5 against an average line of 7.3; 45.5 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 2 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	DET vs NYJ 2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar season form	-7	31–24	P	O49.5
Loose	DET vs TB 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & spread	-7.5	16–20	L	U51.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WWWW	4-0	100%	2-0	3-0
NE PWLW	2-1-1	67%	1-0	1-0

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UUOO	2-2	50%	3-1
NE UUUO	1-3	25%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 72 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–54.5, 19% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
NE	7-3 70%	6-3-1 67%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LV 4–8 NE NE leads · 12 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2025	Las Vegas Raiders 20 @ New England Patriots 13	NE -2.5	LV W
Oct 15 2023	New England Patriots 17 @ Las Vegas Raiders 21	LV -3.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−3.0 →−1.0▲ 2.0#19

NE+1.8 →+1.8–#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

Longer bar = better

#15

Offense

◀ LV better

#22

#11

Defense

Even

#10

+0.8 #9

Turnovers

◀ LV better

−1.3 #30

67 plays #5

Pace

◀ LV faster

63 plays #12

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	28.8 #7	19.3 #7	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #17	5.13 #10	NE
EPA / play	+0.01 #14	−0.01 #13	Even
Success rate	43% #20	42% #10	NE

When NE has the ball

Advantage: LV defense

	NE off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	16.3 #30	21.0 #11	LV
Yards / play	5.24 #15	5.57 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #23	−0.10 #4	LV
Success rate	43% #18	43% #11	LV

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	4.3 #13	9.8 #5	14.0 #5	5.8 #11	9.0 #9	14.8 #7
NE allowed	0.0 #1	8.5 #26	8.5 #6	4.3 #12	6.5 #15	10.8 #13

NE scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	3.5 #22	5.0 #24	8.5 #26	3.3 #21	4.5 #24	7.8 #28
LV allowed	3.3 #11	5.8 #9	9.0 #7	7.0 #26	5.0 #7	12.0 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.