Panthers @ Browns: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 3, 2026)

Sun, Sep 27, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 3 · at Cleveland Browns

Weather at kickoff69°F11 mphgusts 17DryWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

1-1 · Power #13

final

Final

Cleveland Browns

1-1 · Power #30

▲ winner

Closing spread

CAR -2.5

✓ CLE W

Total

41.5

▼ Under · 39 pts

Model before kickoff

CAR 22–20 CLE

✗ CAR (59%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCAR -1.5

CloseCAR -2.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCAR -1.5

1 → CAR

CloseCAR -2.5

1 pt toward Carolina Panthers

Total

Open39.5

▲ 2

Close41.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CAR -1.5 · closed CAR -2.5 · moved 1 toward CARmodel CAR -2.5 matches the line

model CAR -2.5 = line ✓

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 53% (168 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 46% (127 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCAR -1.5

CloseCAR -2.5

Total39.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CAR as a 2.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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This game: CLE won 21–18 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 39 points stayed under 41.5, as in 5 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 63%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 2.8; 42.6 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ CLE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	27–10	W	U41.5
Close	PIT @ IND 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	24–27	L	O40.5
Close	WSH @ NYG 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	27–22	W	O42.5
Close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Close	PHI @ KC 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar situation & spread	-1.5	20–17	W	U46.5
Close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	20–30	L	O46.5
Close	PIT @ LV 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	32–13	W	O36.5
Close	NE @ NO 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	25–19	W	U46.5
Close	ATL @ CAR 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	0–30	L	U43.5
Close	ATL @ NYJ 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	24–27	L	O38.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LW	1-1	50%	1-0	1-0
CLE LW	1-1	50%	—	1-1

Venue/role: CAR away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OU	1-1	50%	1-1
CLE OO	2-0	100%	1-1

Stayed under: it needed 23 in the 4th quarter and got 20. 51% of games with totals 38.5–44.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
CLE	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 4–4 CLE Series tied · 8 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−1.6 →−0.8▲ 0.8#18

CLE−1.8 →−2.8▼ 1.0#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW2

CAR

Longer bar = better

CLE

Offense

◀ CAR better

#20

#23

Defense

Even

#24

+1.5 #1

Turnovers

◀ CAR better

−0.5 #20

61 plays #13

Pace

◀ CAR faster

52 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: CAR offense

	CAR off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	35.5 #2	26.5 #23	CAR
Yards / play	6.70 #4	5.70 #22	CAR
EPA / play	+0.16 #6	+0.08 #24	CAR
Success rate	46% #11	49% #28	CAR

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	16.5 #25	31.0 #28	Even
Yards / play	5.18 #17	6.12 #28	CLE
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.02 #14	CAR
Success rate	44% #14	45% #21	CLE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 2 teams

CAR scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	8.5	13.5	22.0	10.5	3.0	13.5
CLE allowed	10.0	6.5	16.5	8.5	1.5	10.0

CLE scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.5	1.5	3.0	6.5	7.0	13.5
CAR allowed	7.0	10.0	17.0	7.0	7.0	14.0

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.