Texans @ Commanders: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Sun, Dec 13, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Washington Commanders

Houston Texans

2-4 · Power #11

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders

1-4-1 · Power #26

projected

HOU 56%

44% WSH

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

44.5

model 45.5

Spread edge

HOU by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -1.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowHOU -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now44.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -1.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 1.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 58%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins below normal, covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 11.5 against an average line of 1.8; 45.1 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	JAX @ ARI 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	27–24	W	O46.5
Very close	ATL @ SF 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	10–20	L	U46.5
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Very close	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Very close	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Very close	NO @ IND 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-2	38–27	W	O44
Very close	ATL @ ARI 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	23–25	L	O43.5
Very close	CLE @ HOU 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	14–45	L	O45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-3
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4
WSH OOUOU	4-2	67%	1-4-1

In 510 games with totals 41.5–47.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
WSH	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Houston Texans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs JAX	W34–31WO
Dec 24	@ PHI	No meeting since 2023
Jan 4	@ GB	L22–24WU

Washington Commanders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs ATL	L27–34LO
Dec 27	@ MIN	L0–31LU
Jan 3	@ JAX	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 3–3 WSH Series tied · 6 games since 2002 · WSH has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+2.4 →+1.6▼ 0.8#11

WSH−1.6 →−2.3▼ 0.7#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

HOU

Longer bar = better

WSH

#14

Offense

◀ HOU better

#19

#15

Defense

◀ HOU better

#26

+0.5 #11

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+1.0 #3

63 plays #14

Pace

Even

64 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	28.7 #29	HOU
Yards / play	5.66 #11	5.58 #22	HOU
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	+0.07 #24	HOU
Success rate	43% #16	48% #29	HOU

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	23.8 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #18	5.18 #14	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	0.00 #18	Even
Success rate	41% #21	41% #6	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5 #14	8.2 #9	12.7 #11	5.2 #13	6.2 #21	11.3 #18
WSH allowed	4.3 #14	8.0 #22	12.3 #21	7.2 #26	9.2 #28	16.3 #31

WSH scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.2 #17	5.3 #22	9.5 #22	5.2 #13	7.3 #17	12.5 #10
HOU allowed	2.0 #3	9.2 #28	11.2 #16	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.