Jaguars @ Texans: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2026)

Sun, Dec 20, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Houston Texans · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #6

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Houston Texans

2-4 · Power #11

projected

JAX 52%

48% HOU

Spread

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Total

—

model 44.5

Model line

JAX -0.5

JAX 52% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	—
HOU LLLWW	2-4	33%	0-3	—

Venue/role: JAX away; HOU home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
HOU UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jacksonville Jaguars

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ DAL	No meeting since 2023
Jan 3	vs WSH	No meeting since 2023
Jan 10	@ IND	W23–17WU

Houston Texans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 24	@ PHI	No meeting since 2023
Jan 4	@ GB	L22–24WU
Jan 10	vs TEN	W26–3WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

JAX 16–33 HOU HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2026	Houston Texans 34 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 31	JAX -2.5	HOU W
Nov 9 2025	Jacksonville Jaguars 29 @ Houston Texans 36	HOU -2.5	HOU W
Sep 21 2025	Houston Texans 10 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 17	JAX -1.5	JAX W
Dec 1 2024	Houston Texans 23 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 20	HOU -3.5	JAX W
Sep 29 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Houston Texans 24	HOU -5.5	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+1.4 →+3.0▲ 1.6#6

HOU+2.4 →+1.6▼ 0.8#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

JAX

Longer bar = better

HOU

Offense

◀ JAX better

#14

Defense

Even

#15

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

+0.5 #11

60 plays #23

Pace

HOU faster ▶

63 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	23.8 #20	JAX
Yards / play	5.78 #9	5.18 #14	JAX
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	0.00 #18	JAX
Success rate	48% #6	41% #6	Even

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	17.3 #3	JAX
Yards / play	5.66 #11	5.82 #26	HOU
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	−0.04 #12	Even
Success rate	43% #16	43% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	9.7 #5	13.7 #8	6.7 #8	5.3 #24	12.0 #14
HOU allowed	2.0 #3	9.2 #28	11.2 #16	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

HOU scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5 #14	8.2 #9	12.7 #11	5.2 #13	6.2 #21	11.3 #18
JAX allowed	1.2 #1	5.5 #9	6.7 #2	4.5 #15	6.2 #12	10.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.