Sat, Dec 19, 2026, 5:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Philadelphia Eagles
3-3 · Power #1
23
projected
@
2-4 · Power #24
18
projected
SEA 68%
32% PHI
Spread
—
 
Total
—
model 41
Model line
SEA -5
SEA 68% to win
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Winner

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Seattle Seahawks 68%
Projected SEA 23 – PHI 18 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest
Model line
SEA -5
Market —
Against the spread
No lean
No market line yet
Total
—
Model 41
How the model gets there (points from PHI’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadPHI rating edge−6.6+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap+1.3+Travel−1.5=Model marginSEA by 5.0
TotalScoring ratings40.8=Model total40.8

Signals

The data signal, and no trends and market moves behind it
No clear signal on the spread
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

No notable trends or market moves for this game.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
SEA+3.2 →+4.3▲ 1.1#1
PHI+1.1 →−2.3▼ 3.4#24
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

SEA
Longer bar = better
PHI
#19
Offense
◀ SEA better
#30
#3
Defense
◀ SEA better
#21
−0.2 #19
Turnovers
Even
−0.3 #20
63 plays #12
Pace
◀ SEA faster
58 plays #28
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When SEA has the ball
Even matchup
SEA offPHI defEdge
Points / game 24.7 #13 22.8 #16 Even
Yards / play 5.26 #17 5.38 #17 Even
EPA / play −0.08 #24 +0.08 #27 Even
Success rate 41% #22 45% #25 Even
When PHI has the ball
Advantage: SEA defense
PHI offSEA defEdge
Points / game 17.7 #29 20.3 #6 SEA
Yards / play 4.38 #32 3.96 #1 SEA
EPA / play −0.13 #30 −0.13 #2 SEA
Success rate 36% #30 37% #2 SEA

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
SEA scoring against the PHI defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
SEA scored
4.0
#18
4.8
#25
8.8
#24
7.2
#6
8.7
#7
15.8
#4
PHI allowed
5.0
#17
4.3
#6
9.3
#9
3.8
#9
9.7
#31
13.5
#26
PHI scoring against the SEA defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
PHI scored
0.5
#32
12.2
#2
12.7
#11
1.0
#32
4.0
#30
5.0
#32
SEA allowed
2.8
#7
9.2
#28
12.0
#20
2.8
#3
5.0
#6
7.8
#3

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
PHI +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
SEA6d
PHI6d
Even
Tempo
Average 122 plays
slowavg 125fast
Travel
SEA 2,375 mi
Model moves the line 1.5 pts

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.