Bears @ Bills: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2026)

Sat, Dec 19, 2026, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Buffalo Bills

Chicago Bears

5-2 · Power #4

projected

Sat 8:20 PM ET

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · Power #9

projected

CHI 43%

57% BUF

Spread

—

Total

—

model 53.5

Model line

BUF -2

BUF 57% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WWLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	—
BUF WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	—

Venue/role: CHI away; BUF home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2
BUF OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Chicago Bears

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 25	vs GB	L7–31LU
Jan 3	vs DET	L16–19LU
Jan 10	@ MIN	L3–9LU

Buffalo Bills

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 25	@ DEN	L30–33LO
Jan 3	@ MIA	L13–30LU
Jan 10	vs NYJ	W35–8WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 3–4 BUF BUF leads · 7 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI+0.4 →+3.2▲ 2.8#4

BUF+2.1 →+2.7▲ 0.6#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

CHI

Longer bar = better

BUF

#11

Offense

BUF better ▶

#17

Defense

◀ CHI better

#28

−0.1 #18

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−0.5 #26

72 plays #1

Pace

◀ CHI faster

60 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	28.5 #28	CHI
Yards / play	5.42 #15	5.64 #25	CHI
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	+0.13 #30	CHI
Success rate	47% #10	47% #27	CHI

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	20.4 #8	BUF
Yards / play	6.48 #2	6.25 #32	BUF
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	0.00 #19	BUF
Success rate	49% #4	42% #8	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.9 #3	7.1 #15	15.0 #3	6.4 #10	4.3 #28	10.7 #22
BUF allowed	5.2 #22	7.3 #21	12.5 #22	4.0 #13	12.0 #32	16.0 #30

BUF scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	13.0 #1	17.3 #2	4.3 #19	10.7 #1	15.0 #6
CHI allowed	2.4 #5	8.3 #23	10.7 #15	3.7 #8	6.0 #9	9.7 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.