Bills @ Packers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Sun, Dec 13, 2026, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Green Bay Packers

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · Power #9

projected

Sun 8:20 PM ET

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · Power #14

projected

BUF 46%

54% GB

Spread

GB -1.5

Total

49.5

model 50

Spread edge

BUF by 2.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentGB -1.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowGB -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now49.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentGB -1.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 1.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 6.7 against an average line of 2.1; 51.9 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Very close	JAX vs BUF 2025 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	24–27	L	U51.5
Very close	CHI vs DET 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	16–19	L	U51.5
Very close	LAC vs CIN 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-0.5	34–27	W	O48.5
Very close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & total	-2	17–20	L	U49
Close	DAL vs LAC 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	17–34	L	O50.5
Close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	1-0
GB LLWWW	3-3	50%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1
GB UOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2

In 279 games with totals 46.5–52.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
GB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Buffalo Bills

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 19	vs CHI	No meeting since 2023
Dec 25	@ DEN	L30–33LO
Jan 3	@ MIA	L13–30LU

Green Bay Packers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs MIA	W30–17WU
Dec 25	@ CHI	W31–7WU
Jan 4	vs HOU	W24–22LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 4–3 GB BUF leads · 7 games since 2000 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.1 →+2.7▲ 0.6#9

GB+0.9 →+0.6▼ 0.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

BUF

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ BUF better

#19

#28

Defense

GB better ▶

#10

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+0.7 #6

60 plays #25

Pace

Even

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	20.8 #10	BUF
Yards / play	6.48 #2	4.64 #3	Even
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	−0.06 #7	BUF
Success rate	49% #4	44% #21	BUF

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #23	28.5 #28	GB
Yards / play	5.43 #14	5.64 #25	GB
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	+0.13 #30	GB
Success rate	40% #25	47% #27	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	13.0 #1	17.3 #2	4.3 #19	10.7 #1	15.0 #6
GB allowed	1.7 #2	6.3 #16	8.0 #4	4.7 #18	8.2 #22	12.8 #20

GB scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #12	12.3 #14	3.7 #21	4.7 #26	8.3 #30
BUF allowed	5.2 #22	7.3 #21	12.5 #22	4.0 #13	12.0 #32	16.0 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.