Buccaneers @ Ravens: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Sun, Dec 13, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Baltimore Ravens

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-5 · Power #19

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens

4-2 · Power #10

projected

TB 29%

71% BAL

Spread

BAL -6

Total

48.5

model 46

Spread edge

BAL by 2.5

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -6

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBAL -6

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5–7 since 2023: won 72%, covered 52% (107 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -6

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 6-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 6; 48.2 points a game (usually 46). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs LAC 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	31–17	W	O47.5
Very close	WSH vs CHI 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	24–25	L	O48.5
Very close	SF vs SEA 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	17–20	L	U48.5
Very close	NE vs NYG 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7	33–15	W	O46.5
Very close	MIN vs IND 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	21–13	W	U46.5
Very close	DET vs DEN 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-5.5	42–17	W	O49
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Very close	DET vs TB 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-6	31–23	W	O50
Very close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & season form	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5
Very close	SF vs CAR 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	20–9	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-1	1-3
BAL LPLWL	2-3-1	40%	0-2	1-3-1

Venue/role: TB away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OUUUO	3-3	50%	1-5
BAL UOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%
BAL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs NO	L20–24LO
Dec 27	@ ATL	L28–29LO
Jan 3	vs LAR	L7–34LU

Baltimore Ravens

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ PIT	L24–26LO
Dec 27	vs CLE	L10–13LU
Dec 31	@ CIN	W24–0WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TB 2–6 BAL BAL leads · 8 games since 2001 · BAL has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 21 2024	Baltimore Ravens 41 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31	BAL -4.5	BAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB−0.2 →−1.2▼ 1.0#19

BAL+0.7 →+1.9▲ 1.2#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

BAL

#27

Offense

BAL better ▶

Defense

◀ TB better

#13

−0.5 #22

Turnovers

BAL better ▶

+0.3 #14

63 plays #13

Pace

◀ TB faster

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	TB off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #25	22.0 #15	BAL
Yards / play	4.66 #25	5.04 #12	BAL
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	−0.03 #14	BAL
Success rate	39% #27	42% #9	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #7	23.0 #17	BAL
Yards / play	6.01 #4	5.01 #9	BAL
EPA / play	+0.11 #7	−0.09 #4	Even
Success rate	48% #5	41% #5	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #25	6.2 #17	9.3 #23	6.7 #8	3.8 #31	10.5 #24
BAL allowed	5.0 #17	3.8 #3	8.8 #6	3.8 #9	9.3 #29	13.2 #22

BAL scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	8.0 #1	9.5 #6	17.5 #1	2.7 #27	4.7 #26	7.3 #31
TB allowed	5.7 #26	6.0 #12	11.7 #18	3.3 #5	6.8 #16	10.2 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.