Ravens @ Texans: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sun, Nov 29, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Houston Texans

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

4-2 · Power #10

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Houston Texans

2-4 · Power #11

projected

BAL 45%

55% HOU

Spread

HOU -1.5

Total

45.5

model 45.5

Spread edge

BAL by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -1.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowHOU -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentHOU -1.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like HOU as a 1.5-point home favorite against BAL, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.4 against an average line of 2; 41.8 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DEN vs BUF 2025 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	33–30	W	O45.5
Very close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	CHI vs GB 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	22–16	W	U44.5
Very close	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	29–10	W	U44
Very close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Very close	PHI vs DET 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	16–9	W	U45.5
Very close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Very close	GB vs PHI 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	7–10	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL LPLWL	2-3-1	40%	2-1	1-0
HOU LLLWW	2-4	33%	0-3	1-3

Venue/role: BAL away, as underdog; HOU home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL UOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2
HOU UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Baltimore Ravens

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs TB	W41–31WO
Dec 20	@ PIT	L24–26LO
Dec 27	vs CLE	L10–13LU

Houston Texans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ PIT	W30–6WU
Dec 13	@ WSH	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	vs JAX	W34–31WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 4 since 2023

BAL 13–3 HOU BAL leads · 16 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2025	Houston Texans 44 @ Baltimore Ravens 10	HOU -2.5	HOU W
Dec 25 2024	Baltimore Ravens 31 @ Houston Texans 2	BAL -6.5	BAL W
Jan 20 2023	Houston Texans 10 @ Baltimore Ravens 34	BAL -10	BAL W
Sep 10 2023	Houston Texans 9 @ Baltimore Ravens 25	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+0.7 →+1.9▲ 1.2#10

HOU+2.4 →+1.6▼ 0.8#11

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

BAL

Longer bar = better

HOU

Offense

◀ BAL better

#14

#13

Defense

Even

#15

+0.3 #14

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #11

61 plays #21

Pace

HOU faster ▶

63 plays #14

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #7	23.8 #20	BAL
Yards / play	6.01 #4	5.18 #14	BAL
EPA / play	+0.11 #7	0.00 #18	BAL
Success rate	48% #5	41% #6	Even

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	22.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #11	5.04 #12	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	−0.03 #14	Even
Success rate	43% #16	42% #9	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	8.0 #1	9.5 #6	17.5 #1	2.7 #27	4.7 #26	7.3 #31
HOU allowed	2.0 #3	9.2 #28	11.2 #16	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

HOU scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5 #14	8.2 #9	12.7 #11	5.2 #13	6.2 #21	11.3 #18
BAL allowed	5.0 #17	3.8 #3	8.8 #6	3.8 #9	9.3 #29	13.2 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.