Saints @ Bengals: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sun, Nov 29, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Cincinnati Bengals

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #29

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals

3-2 · Power #15

projected

NO 28%

72% CIN

Spread

CIN -6.5

Total

48.5

model 49

Spread edge

NO by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -6.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCIN -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (150 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -6.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 6.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 10, covered 8, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

10 of 10100%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 55%

Covers above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 15.2 against an average line of 6.3; 48.4 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SF vs CAR 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-7	20–9	W	U48.5
Very close	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Very close	NE vs NYG 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-7	33–15	W	O46.5
Very close	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Very close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Very close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Very close	LAR vs WSH 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	28–20	W	U48.5
Very close	DET vs DEN 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-5.5	42–17	W	O49
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Very close	MIN vs ATL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & season form	-5.5	42–21	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WLLLW	3-3	50%	3-0	2-1
CIN WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4
CIN OUOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
CIN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Orleans Saints

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs GB	L0–34LU
Dec 13	@ CAR	W20–17WU
Dec 20	@ TB	W24–20WO

Cincinnati Bengals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ CLE	L18–20LU
Dec 13	vs KC	L25–26WO
Dec 20	@ CAR	W34–24WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

NO 2–4 CIN CIN leads · 6 games since 2002 · CIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.2 →−2.6▼ 1.4#29

CIN−1.2 →+0.5▲ 1.7#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

CIN

#19

Offense

CIN better ▶

#10

#29

Defense

CIN better ▶

#17

−0.5 #23

Turnovers

CIN better ▶

+0.4 #12

67 plays #5

Pace

◀ NO faster

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	21.8 #14	Even
Yards / play	4.80 #23	5.61 #23	Even
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.03 #15	CIN
Success rate	42% #20	43% #14	CIN

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #10	29.7 #31	CIN
Yards / play	5.49 #12	5.84 #27	CIN
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	+0.07 #25	CIN
Success rate	47% #8	49% #31	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	9.5 #1	7.7 #15	17.2 #2
CIN allowed	5.4 #24	4.6 #7	10.0 #11	5.2 #20	6.6 #14	11.8 #16

CIN scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.6 #6	8.8 #8	14.4 #6	6.0 #11	5.2 #25	11.2 #19
NO allowed	6.8 #31	6.0 #12	12.8 #23	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.