Saints @ Buccaneers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2026)

Sun, Dec 20, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Division game

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #29

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-5 · Power #19

projected

NO 44%

56% TB

Spread

—

Total

—

model 46

Model line

TB -1.5

TB 56% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WLLLW	3-3	50%	3-0	—
TB LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-4	—

Venue/role: NO away; TB home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4
TB OUUUO	3-3	50%	1-5

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
TB	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Orleans Saints

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	vs ARI	L13–20LU
Jan 3	@ ATL	L24–45LO
Jan 10	vs TB	W24–20WO

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ ATL	L28–29LO
Jan 3	vs LAR	L7–34LU
Jan 10	@ NO	L20–24LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NO 28–23 TB NO leads · 51 games since 1999 · NO has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2025	New Orleans Saints 24 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20	TB -7.5	NO W
Oct 26 2025	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 @ New Orleans Saints 3	TB -3.5	TB W
Jan 5 2024	New Orleans Saints 19 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27	TB -14.5	NO W
Oct 13 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51 @ New Orleans Saints 27	TB -3.5	TB W
Dec 31 2023	New Orleans Saints 23 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13	TB -2.5	NO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.2 →−2.6▼ 1.4#29

TB−0.2 →−1.2▼ 1.0#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

◀ NO better

#27

#29

Defense

TB better ▶

−0.5 #23

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #22

67 plays #5

Pace

◀ NO faster

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	NO off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	23.0 #17	NO
Yards / play	4.80 #23	5.01 #9	TB
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.09 #4	TB
Success rate	42% #20	41% #5	TB

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #25	29.7 #31	TB
Yards / play	4.66 #25	5.84 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	+0.07 #25	Even
Success rate	39% #27	49% #31	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	9.5 #1	7.7 #15	17.2 #2
TB allowed	5.7 #26	6.0 #12	11.7 #18	3.3 #5	6.8 #16	10.2 #8

TB scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #25	6.2 #17	9.3 #23	6.7 #8	3.8 #31	10.5 #24
NO allowed	6.8 #31	6.0 #12	12.8 #23	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.