Rams @ Buccaneers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 17 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Los Angeles Rams

2-4 · Power #5

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-5 · Power #19

projected

LAR 67%

33% TB

Spread

LAR -4.5

Total

48.5

model 46

Spread edge

LAR by 2.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -4.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAR -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 50% (101 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -4.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 4.5-point road favorite at TB, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 4.1; 46.5 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI @ SEA 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5	17–20	L	U46
Very close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Very close	DET @ NO 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	33–28	W	O48
Very close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Very close	SF @ SEA 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	36–24	W	O48.5
Close	TB @ NO 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	23–3	W	U45.5
Close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Close	GB @ JAX 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	SF @ ARI 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	41–22	W	O48.5
Close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff

Model Favorite

Los Angeles Rams 67%

Projected LAR 25 – TB 21 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest

Model line

LAR -7

Market LAR -4.5

Against the spread

Lean LAR -4.5

2.6-pt edge · No edge, context only · 458-426 (51.8%)

Total

No lean

Model 46 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.

How the model gets there (points from TB’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)

SpreadTB rating edge−4.4+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap−3.0+Travel−1.5=Model marginLAR by 7.1

TotalScoring ratings46.1=Model total46.1

Signals

The data signal, and 6 trends and market moves behind it

Moderate Los Angeles Rams ATS trend

Moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Los Angeles Rams ATS struggles (1-5)

Los Angeles Rams have covered only 17% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)

Los Angeles Rams 1-4 ATS as a favorite

Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 69-56 (55%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ATS struggles (1-5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered only 17% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers home ATS weakness (0-4)

Weak against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 71-65 (52%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-3 ATS as an underdog

Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 69-56 (55%)

Los Angeles Rams on a cross-country trip

Los Angeles Rams cross 3 time zones (2,152 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)

beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	1-4
TB LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-4	1-3

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; TB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
TB OUUUO	3-3	50%	1-5

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
TB	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Los Angeles Rams

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs SEA	L27–31LO

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ NO	L20–24LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAR 11–7 TB LAR leads · 18 games since 1999 · LAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2025	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 @ Los Angeles Rams 34	LAR -7.5	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+3.0 →+3.1▲ 0.1#5

TB−0.2 →−1.2▼ 1.0#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

LAR

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

◀ LAR better

#27

#13

Defense

TB better ▶

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #22

68 plays #3

Pace

◀ LAR faster

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #20	23.0 #17	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #8	5.01 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.09 #4	TB
Success rate	47% #7	41% #5	Even

When TB has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	TB off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #25	23.0 #18	LAR
Yards / play	4.66 #25	4.85 #7	LAR
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	−0.04 #10	LAR
Success rate	39% #27	44% #18	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.3 #23	7.2 #14	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	9.7 #3	12.0 #14
TB allowed	5.7 #26	6.0 #12	11.7 #18	3.3 #5	6.8 #16	10.2 #8

TB scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #25	6.2 #17	9.3 #23	6.7 #8	3.8 #31	10.5 #24
LAR allowed	2.5 #6	6.7 #17	9.2 #8	5.8 #24	7.5 #19	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.