Raiders @ Cardinals: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Arizona Cardinals

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Las Vegas Raiders

3-3 · Power #23

projected

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Arizona Cardinals

2-4 · Power #28

projected

LV 55%

45% ARI

Spread

LV -1.5

Total

42.5

model 47.5

Spread edge

ARI by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLV -1.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLV -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now42.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLV -1.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LV as a 1.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.3 against an average line of 1.9; 45.7 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND @ TEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-1	31–28	W	O42
Very close	MIN @ NYG 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	16–13	W	U41.5
Very close	ATL @ ARI 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2	23–25	L	O43.5
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	MIA @ NYJ 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Very close	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	33–10	W	O42.5
Very close	LAC @ ARI 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	15–17	L	U44.5
Very close	JAX @ ARI 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	27–24	W	O46.5
Very close	ARI @ NYG 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–36	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WWWLW	5-1	83%	2-1	1-0
ARI LWLLW	3-3	50%	0-2	3-2

Venue/role: LV away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOOOO	4-2	67%	3-3
ARI UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
ARI	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Las Vegas Raiders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ KC	L27–30WO

Arizona Cardinals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs SF	L30–36WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

LV 3–4 ARI ARI leads · 7 games since 2001 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−3.0 →−2.1▲ 0.9#23

ARI−1.3 →−2.5▼ 1.2#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

ARI

#13

Offense

◀ LV better

#20

#26

Defense

Even

#29

+0.3 #15

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #13

64 plays #9

Pace

ARI faster ▶

67 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: LV offense

	LV off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	29.7 #32	LV
Yards / play	5.33 #16	6.01 #30	LV
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	+0.08 #28	LV
Success rate	43% #17	45% #24	LV

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #24	27.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.56 #28	5.99 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	+0.03 #22	ARI
Success rate	46% #11	45% #26	ARI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.2 #8	7.5 #11	12.7 #11	4.3 #19	10.0 #2	14.3 #8
ARI allowed	4.5 #15	9.3 #30	13.8 #31	7.5 #28	8.3 #26	15.8 #29

ARI scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.2 #8	4.7 #26	9.8 #19	4.5 #18	6.7 #19	11.2 #20
LV allowed	5.0 #17	6.7 #17	11.7 #18	8.7 #31	6.7 #15	15.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.