Saints @ Falcons: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Atlanta Falcons · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #29

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta Falcons

2-4 · Power #18

projected

NO 44%

56% ATL

Spread

ATL -1.5

Total

44.5

model 47

Spread edge

ATL by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentATL -1.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowATL -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now44.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentATL -1.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 1.5-point home favorite against NO, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 2.4; 40.3 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5
Very close	IND vs PIT 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & spread	-1	30–13	W	O41.5
Very close	LAC vs DEN 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	7–24	L	U45.5
Very close	IND vs TB 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	27–20	W	O44.5
Very close	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	29–10	W	U44
Very close	MIN vs WSH 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	31–0	W	U43.5
Very close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & total	-3	28–15	W	U43.5
Very close	TB vs CAR 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	16–14	L	U42.5
Very close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Very close	CIN vs IND 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-3	34–14	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NO WLLLW	3-3	50%	3-0	2-1
ATL LWWLL	2-4	33%	0-3	0-1

Venue/role: NO away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NO UOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4
ATL UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 510 games with totals 41.5–47.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NO	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New Orleans Saints

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs TB	W24–20WO

Atlanta Falcons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ CAR	L3–34LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NO 32–23 ATL NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 5 2026	Atlanta Falcons 45 @ New Orleans Saints 24	NO -1.5	ATL W
Jan 4 2025	New Orleans Saints 17 @ Atlanta Falcons 19	ATL -3.5	NO W
Nov 23 2025	Atlanta Falcons 24 @ New Orleans Saints 10	NO -1.5	ATL W
Nov 10 2024	Atlanta Falcons 17 @ New Orleans Saints 20	ATL -4.5	NO W
Sep 29 2024	New Orleans Saints 24 @ Atlanta Falcons 26	ATL -2.5	NO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NO−1.2 →−2.6▼ 1.4#29

ATL−0.6 →−1.0▼ 0.4#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

ATL

#19

Offense

ATL better ▶

#15

#29

Defense

ATL better ▶

#15

−0.5 #23

Turnovers

◀ NO better

−1.2 #31

67 plays #5

Pace

◀ NO faster

60 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	25.5 #23	NO
Yards / play	4.80 #23	5.03 #11	ATL
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.02 #16	Even
Success rate	42% #20	42% #11	ATL

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #16	29.7 #31	ATL
Yards / play	5.74 #10	5.84 #27	ATL
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	+0.07 #25	Even
Success rate	44% #13	49% #31	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NO scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	9.5 #1	7.7 #15	17.2 #2
ATL allowed	6.2 #27	6.7 #17	12.8 #23	5.0 #19	6.5 #13	11.5 #14

ATL scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #5	6.2 #17	12.0 #16	3.3 #25	8.3 #11	11.7 #17
NO allowed	6.8 #31	6.0 #12	12.8 #23	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #28

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.