Broncos @ Patriots: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 17 · at New England Patriots

Denver Broncos

4-2 · Power #16

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

New England Patriots

4-3 · Power #7

projected

DEN 40%

60% NE

Spread

NE -2.5

Total

42.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

NE by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -2.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowNE -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -2.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 2.5-point home favorite against DEN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 3.2; 43.3 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO vs ATL 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	48–17	W	O41.5
Very close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Very close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–15	W	U43.5
Very close	TB vs NO 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–23	L	U42.5
Very close	TB vs CAR 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	16–14	L	U42.5
Very close	CIN vs MIN 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–24	P	O41.5
Very close	SF vs CHI 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	38–13	W	O43.5
Very close	GB vs TB 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & season form	-4	20–34	L	O41
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	10–12	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWLWW	4-2	67%	1-2	1-2
NE LWWLL	3-3-1	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: DEN away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2
NE UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
NE	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Denver Broncos

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs LAC	W23–17WU

New England Patriots

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs MIA	W38–10WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

DEN 10–13 NE NE leads · 23 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 25 2025	New England Patriots 10 @ Denver Broncos 7	NE -3.5	DEN W
Dec 24 2023	New England Patriots 26 @ Denver Broncos 23	DEN -7	NE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+1.2 →+0.3▼ 0.9#16

NE+1.8 →+2.7▲ 0.9#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

DEN

Longer bar = better

#28

Offense

NE better ▶

#11

Defense

◀ DEN better

#16

+0.7 #7

Turnovers

◀ DEN better

−1.0 #30

57 plays #30

Pace

NE faster ▶

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	DEN off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #26	20.4 #9	NE
Yards / play	4.40 #31	5.36 #16	NE
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	+0.02 #20	NE
Success rate	38% #28	44% #20	NE

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #17	20.8 #11	DEN
Yards / play	6.00 #5	5.05 #13	NE
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	−0.04 #9	Even
Success rate	45% #12	40% #4	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	3.7 #21	8.7 #7	12.3 #12
NE allowed	2.9 #9	6.3 #15	9.1 #7	5.3 #21	6.0 #9	11.3 #12

NE scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #13	12.3 #15	4.9 #16	5.7 #23	10.6 #23
DEN allowed	2.8 #7	5.3 #8	8.2 #5	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.