Vikings @ Jets: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at New York Jets

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

New York Jets

2-4 · Power #27

projected

MIN 63%

37% NYJ

Spread

MIN -3.5

Total

39.5

model 39

Spread edge

MIN by 2

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIN -3.5

Total39.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowMIN -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now39.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (168 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIN -3.5

Total39.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 3.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.8 against an average line of 3.1; 39.6 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU @ PIT 2025 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	30–6	W	U38.5
Very close	MIN @ CHI 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	30–27	W	O39.5
Very close	CLE @ HOU 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	36–22	W	O40
Very close	SEA @ DEN 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	14–17	L	U40.5
Very close	LAC @ HOU 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	12–32	L	O41.5
Very close	LAC @ JAX 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	6–35	L	U42.5
Very close	KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	21–7	W	U41.5
Very close	BAL @ JAX 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	23–7	W	U42.5
Close	JAX @ TEN 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–28	L	O41
Close	BAL @ CLE 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-3	10–13	L	U40.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-0	2-1
NYJ WPLWW	4-1-1	80%	2-0	3-1-1

Venue/role: MIN away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0
NYJ UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4

In 302 games with totals 36.5–42.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Minnesota Vikings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs CHI	W9–3WU

New York Jets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ BUF	L8–35LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

MIN 4–3 NYJ MIN leads · 7 games since 2002 · MIN has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 6 2024	New York Jets 17 @ Minnesota Vikings 23	MIN -2.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#8

NYJ−3.3 →−2.4▲ 0.9#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

MIN

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#27

Offense

NYJ better ▶

#21

Defense

◀ MIN better

#11

+1.2 #1

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

+0.7 #8

61 plays #20

Pace

◀ MIN faster

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	MIN off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	20.3 #7	NYJ
Yards / play	4.61 #27	4.80 #5	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	−0.05 #8	NYJ
Success rate	36% #32	44% #23	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	NYJ off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	12.8 #1	MIN
Yards / play	4.93 #22	4.62 #2	MIN
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	−0.21 #1	MIN
Success rate	44% #15	33% #1	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.4 #15	5.2 #24	9.6 #21	3.4 #23	8.8 #6	12.2 #13
NYJ allowed	3.3 #10	6.0 #12	9.3 #9	2.3 #2	8.2 #22	10.5 #9

NYJ scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	5.5 #12	7.0 #18	12.5 #10
MIN allowed	3.8 #13	4.0 #4	7.8 #3	4.4 #14	0.6 #1	5.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.