Bengals @ Browns: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sun, Dec 6, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Cleveland Browns · Division game

Cincinnati Bengals

3-2 · Power #15

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland Browns

4-2 · Power #30

projected

CIN 66%

34% CLE

Spread

CIN -4.5

Total

45.5

model 43.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -4.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCIN -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 50% (101 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -4.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 4.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.5 against an average line of 4.3; 35.7 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Very close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Very close	PHI @ SEA 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-5	17–20	L	U46
Very close	LAC @ GB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3	20–23	L	U44
Very close	TB @ MIA 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & total	-5.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Very close	TB @ NO 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	23–3	W	U45.5
Very close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Very close	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5
Very close	BUF @ IND 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	30–20	W	O46.5
Very close	NE @ NO 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	25–19	W	U46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-2	1-3
CLE WWWLW	4-2	67%	3-0	4-2

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUOUO	3-2	60%	3-2
CLE OUOUU	3-3	50%	4-2

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
CLE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cincinnati Bengals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs KC	L25–26WO
Dec 20	@ CAR	W34–24WO
Dec 27	@ IND	W34–14WO

Cleveland Browns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs ATL	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	@ NYG	L15–21LU
Dec 27	@ BAL	W13–10WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CIN 32–22 CLE CIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Cleveland Browns 20 @ Cincinnati Bengals 18	CIN -8.5	CLE W
Sep 7 2025	Cincinnati Bengals 17 @ Cleveland Browns 16	CIN -5.5	CLE W
Dec 22 2024	Cleveland Browns 6 @ Cincinnati Bengals 24	CIN -10.5	CIN W
Oct 20 2024	Cincinnati Bengals 21 @ Cleveland Browns 14	CIN -5.5	CIN W
Jan 7 2023	Cleveland Browns 14 @ Cincinnati Bengals 31	CIN -7	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−1.2 →+0.5▲ 1.7#15

CLE−1.8 →−2.8▼ 1.0#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CIN

Longer bar = better

CLE

#10

Offense

◀ CIN better

#27

#17

Defense

CLE better ▶

#10

+0.4 #12

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

0.0 #17

62 plays #17

Pace

◀ CIN faster

59 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Even matchup

	CIN off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #10	20.3 #5	CLE
Yards / play	5.49 #12	5.03 #10	Even
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.03 #13	Even
Success rate	47% #8	42% #10	Even

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	CLE off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #28	21.8 #14	CIN
Yards / play	4.53 #29	5.61 #23	CIN
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	−0.03 #15	CIN
Success rate	40% #26	43% #14	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.6 #6	8.8 #8	14.4 #6	6.0 #11	5.2 #25	11.2 #19
CLE allowed	7.3 #32	3.2 #1	10.5 #14	3.8 #9	6.0 #9	9.8 #7

CLE scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	2.7 #27	7.8 #13	10.5 #24
CIN allowed	5.4 #24	4.6 #7	10.0 #11	5.2 #20	6.6 #14	11.8 #16

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.