Jaguars @ Bears: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sun, Dec 6, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Chicago Bears

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #6

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Chicago Bears

5-2 · Power #4

projected

JAX 40%

60% CHI

Spread

CHI -3

Total

47.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

JAX by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -3

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCHI -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (204 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -3

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 3-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 9 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 3.6 against an average line of 3; 51.6 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 9 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Very close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Very close	TB vs NE 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	23–28	L	O48.5
Very close	PHI vs DAL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	28–23	W	O46.5
Very close	DEN vs JAX 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	20–34	L	O46.5
Very close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	PHI vs DET 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	16–9	W	U45.5
Very close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
CHI WWLWW	5-2	71%	3-1	4-2

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
CHI UUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jacksonville Jaguars

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 14	vs PIT	W20–10WU
Dec 20	@ HOU	L31–34LO
Dec 27	@ DAL	No meeting since 2023

Chicago Bears

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ MIA	No meeting since 2023
Dec 19	@ BUF	No meeting since 2023
Dec 25	vs GB	L7–31LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

JAX 2–5 CHI CHI leads · 7 games since 2001 · CHI has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 13 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 16 @ Chicago Bears 35	JAX -1.5	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+1.4 →+3.0▲ 1.6#6

CHI+0.4 →+3.2▲ 2.8#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

JAX

Longer bar = better

CHI

Offense

◀ JAX better

#11

#14

Defense

◀ JAX better

#17

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−0.1 #18

60 plays #23

Pace

CHI faster ▶

72 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	20.4 #8	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #9	6.25 #32	JAX
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	0.00 #19	JAX
Success rate	48% #6	42% #8	Even

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	17.3 #3	JAX
Yards / play	5.42 #15	5.82 #26	CHI
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	−0.04 #12	Even
Success rate	47% #10	43% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	9.7 #5	13.7 #8	6.7 #8	5.3 #24	12.0 #14
CHI allowed	2.4 #5	8.3 #23	10.7 #15	3.7 #8	6.0 #9	9.7 #6

CHI scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.9 #3	7.1 #15	15.0 #3	6.4 #10	4.3 #28	10.7 #22
JAX allowed	1.2 #1	5.5 #9	6.7 #2	4.5 #15	6.2 #12	10.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.