Titans @ Jaguars: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sun, Nov 29, 2026, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Jacksonville Jaguars · Division game

Tennessee Titans

1-5 · Power #32

projected

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #6

projected

TEN 28%

72% JAX

Spread

JAX -5.5

Total

45.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

JAX by 8

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentJAX -5.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowJAX -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 48% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentJAX -5.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 5.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 9, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 11.2 against an average line of 6.5; 45.8 points a game (usually 46). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIN vs CHI 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	30–12	W	U43.5
Close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Close	BUF vs MIA 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	PIT vs CLE 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Close	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & rest	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Close	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Close	GB vs MIN 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-6.5	23–6	W	U41.5
Close	NE vs NYG 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar season form & total	-7	33–15	W	O46.5
Close	BUF vs DEN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-7.5	22–24	L	U47
Close	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WLWLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2
JAX LWWLL	3-3	50%	2-0	2-2

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5
JAX UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee Titans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs WSH	L19–42LO
Dec 13	@ DET	L14–52LO
Dec 20	vs IND	W26–20WO

Jacksonville Jaguars

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ CHI	L16–35LO
Dec 14	vs PIT	W20–10WU
Dec 20	@ HOU	L31–34LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

TEN 32–23 JAX TEN leads · 55 games since 1999 · JAX has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Tennessee Titans 7 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 41	JAX -13.5	JAX W
Nov 30 2025	Jacksonville Jaguars 25 @ Tennessee Titans 3	JAX -6	JAX W
Dec 29 2024	Tennessee Titans 13 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 20	TEN -1.5	JAX W
Dec 8 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 10 @ Tennessee Titans 6	TEN -3.5	JAX W
Jan 7 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Tennessee Titans 28	JAX -3.5	TEN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−3.1 →−5.8▼ 2.7#32

JAX+1.4 →+3.0▲ 1.6#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

TEN

Longer bar = better

JAX

#29

Offense

JAX better ▶

#17

Defense

Even

#14

−0.5 #24

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+0.8 #4

53 plays #32

Pace

JAX faster ▶

60 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	TEN off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #31	17.3 #3	JAX
Yards / play	4.46 #30	5.82 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	−0.04 #12	JAX
Success rate	40% #24	43% #13	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	21.5 #13	Even
Yards / play	5.78 #9	5.21 #15	JAX
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	+0.04 #23	JAX
Success rate	48% #6	43% #15	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.3 #23	0.5 #32	3.8 #32	2.7 #27	7.5 #16	10.2 #26
JAX allowed	1.2 #1	5.5 #9	6.7 #2	4.5 #15	6.2 #12	10.7 #10

JAX scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	9.7 #5	13.7 #8	6.7 #8	5.3 #24	12.0 #14
TEN allowed	3.3 #10	10.3 #32	13.7 #29	3.8 #9	4.0 #3	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.