Commanders @ Cardinals: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sun, Nov 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Arizona Cardinals

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

1-4-1 · Power #26

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Arizona Cardinals

2-4 · Power #28

projected

WSH 65%

35% ARI

Spread

WSH -4.5

Total

47.5

model 48

Spread edge

ARI by 3.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentWSH -4.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowWSH -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Road favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 68%, covered 50% (101 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentWSH -4.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 4.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.9 against an average line of 4; 44.1 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Very close	SEA @ ARI 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & rest	-3	21–20	L	U47.5
Very close	BAL @ MIN 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	27–19	W	U49.5
Very close	SF @ ARI 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	41–22	W	O48.5
Very close	CIN @ NYG 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	17–7	W	U45.5
Very close	TB @ MIA 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Very close	CIN @ DAL 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	27–20	W	U50.5
Close	LAC @ MIA 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	29–27	L	O45.5
Close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Close	LAR @ ARI 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & season form	-3	37–14	W	O45

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	0-1
ARI LWLLW	3-3	50%	0-2	3-2

Venue/role: WSH away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUOU	4-2	67%	1-4-1
ARI UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
ARI	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Washington Commanders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ TEN	W42–19WO
Dec 13	vs HOU	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	vs ATL	L27–34LO

Arizona Cardinals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs PHI	W35–31WO
Dec 20	vs NYJ	W31–6WU
Dec 27	@ NO	W20–13WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

WSH 14–4 ARI WSH leads · 18 games since 1999 · WSH has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 29 2024	Washington Commanders 42 @ Arizona Cardinals 14	ARI -3.5	WSH W
Sep 10 2023	Arizona Cardinals 16 @ Washington Commanders 20	WSH -6	ARI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−1.6 →−2.3▼ 0.7#26

ARI−1.3 →−2.5▼ 1.2#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

WSH

Longer bar = better

ARI

#19

Offense

Even

#20

#26

Defense

Even

#29

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

+0.3 #13

64 plays #11

Pace

ARI faster ▶

67 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	29.7 #32	WSH
Yards / play	5.12 #18	6.01 #30	WSH
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	+0.08 #28	WSH
Success rate	41% #21	45% #24	Even

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #24	28.7 #29	ARI
Yards / play	4.56 #28	5.58 #22	WSH
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	+0.07 #24	ARI
Success rate	46% #11	48% #29	ARI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.2 #17	5.3 #22	9.5 #22	5.2 #13	7.3 #17	12.5 #10
ARI allowed	4.5 #15	9.3 #30	13.8 #31	7.5 #28	8.3 #26	15.8 #29

ARI scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.2 #8	4.7 #26	9.8 #19	4.5 #18	6.7 #19	11.2 #20
WSH allowed	4.3 #14	8.0 #22	12.3 #21	7.2 #26	9.2 #28	16.3 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.