Seahawks @ 49ers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sun, Nov 29, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 12 · at San Francisco 49ers · Division game

Seattle Seahawks

3-3 · Power #1

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers

6-0 · Power #3

projected

SEA 53%

47% SF

Spread

SEA -1.5

Total

46.5

model 44.5

Spread edge

SF by 5.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSEA -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowSEA -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSEA -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 1.5-point road favorite at SF, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 1.6; 47.5 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF @ MIA 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	21–14	W	U48
Close	HOU @ MIN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar total & spread	-2	7–34	L	U46.5
Close	ATL @ TB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar total & situation	-0.5	31–26	W	O47.5
Close	SEA @ JAX 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	20–12	W	U47.5
Close	GB @ CHI 2025 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	27–31	L	O46.5
Close	GB @ DEN 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	26–34	L	O42.5
Close	JAX @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-1	24–21	W	U48
Close	DET @ LAC 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	41–38	W	O48
Close	GB @ MIN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & spread	-0.5	25–27	L	O48.5
Loose	SEA @ SF 2025 · Week 18 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	13–3	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA WLPLL	1-3-2	25%	1-2	1-3-2
SF WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-2	2-0

Venue/role: SEA away, as favorite; SF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA UOOOU	3-3	50%	3-3
SF OOUOU	3-3	50%	6-0

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	7-3 70%	5-3-2 63%	5-5 50%
SF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Seattle Seahawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 7	vs DAL	L35–41WO
Dec 13	vs NYG	L20–29LO
Dec 19	@ PHI	W20–17WU

San Francisco 49ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ NYG	W34–24WO
Dec 13	vs LAR	W27–7WU
Dec 17	@ LAC	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

SEA 31–21 SF SEA leads · 52 games since 2002 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2026	San Francisco 49ers 32 @ Seattle Seahawks 29	SEA -3	SF W
Jan 17 2025	San Francisco 49ers 6 @ Seattle Seahawks 41	SEA -7	SEA W
Jan 3 2025	Seattle Seahawks 13 @ San Francisco 49ers 3	SEA -2.5	SEA W
Sep 7 2025	San Francisco 49ers 17 @ Seattle Seahawks 13	SF -1.5	SF W
Nov 17 2024	Seattle Seahawks 20 @ San Francisco 49ers 17	SF -6.5	SEA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA+3.2 →+4.3▲ 1.1#1

SF+0.9 →+3.7▲ 2.8#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

SEA

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

SF better ▶

Defense

◀ SEA better

−0.2 #19

Turnovers

Even

+0.2 #16

63 plays #12

Pace

◀ SEA faster

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	SEA off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #13	18.3 #4	SF
Yards / play	5.26 #17	4.75 #4	SF
EPA / play	−0.08 #24	−0.06 #6	SF
Success rate	41% #22	43% #16	SF

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #3	20.3 #6	Even
Yards / play	6.40 #3	3.96 #1	Even
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	−0.13 #2	Even
Success rate	53% #1	37% #2	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	4.0 #18	4.8 #25	8.8 #24	7.2 #6	8.7 #7	15.8 #4
SF allowed	2.2 #4	4.2 #5	6.3 #1	4.5 #15	7.5 #19	12.0 #17

SF scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.2 #4	8.0 #10	14.2 #7	7.3 #5	8.0 #12	15.3 #5
SEA allowed	2.8 #7	9.2 #28	12.0 #20	2.8 #3	5.0 #6	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.