Cardinals @ Chiefs: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Kansas City Chiefs

Arizona Cardinals

2-4 · Power #28

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

ARI 15%

85% KC

Spread

KC -11.5

Total

44.5

model 46.5

Spread edge

ARI by 2

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentKC -11.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowKC -11.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now44.5

Line context

Home favorites of 9.5–13.5 since 2023: won 85%, covered 54% (59 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentKC -11.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as an 11.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 16.9 against an average line of 11.6; 44.3 points a game (usually 47.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & rest	-10.5	40–14	W	O44.5
Very close	DET vs TEN 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & season form	-12.5	52–14	W	O46.5
Very close	SEA vs MIN 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-12.5	26–0	W	U42.5
Very close	NE vs NYJ 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & situation	-12.5	27–14	W	U42.5
Close	DET vs CLE 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & rest	-10.5	34–10	W	U44.5
Close	HOU vs ARI 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & season form	-10.5	40–20	W	O42.5
Close	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & situation	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Close	BAL vs TEN 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & rest	-11.5	24–18	L	O41.5
Close	GB vs CAR 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-13.5	13–16	L	U43.5
Close	KC vs WSH 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-11.5	28–7	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI LWLLW	3-3	50%	3-1	3-2
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0

In 510 games with totals 41.5–47.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Arizona Cardinals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	vs WSH	L14–42LO
Dec 6	vs PHI	W35–31WO
Dec 20	vs NYJ	W31–6WU

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	@ BUF	L21–28LU
Dec 3	@ LAR	No meeting since 2023
Dec 13	@ CIN	W26–25LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

ARI 2–5 KC KC leads · 7 games since 2001 · KC has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−1.3 →−2.5▼ 1.2#28

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

ARI

Longer bar = better

#20

Offense

KC better ▶

#29

Defense

KC better ▶

+0.3 #13

Turnovers

KC better ▶

+1.0 #2

67 plays #4

Pace

◀ ARI faster

62 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	ARI off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #24	16.6 #2	KC
Yards / play	4.56 #28	4.81 #6	KC
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	−0.10 #3	KC
Success rate	46% #11	38% #3	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	29.7 #32	KC
Yards / play	6.70 #1	6.01 #30	KC
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	+0.08 #28	KC
Success rate	49% #2	45% #24	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.2 #8	4.7 #26	9.8 #19	4.5 #18	6.7 #19	11.2 #20
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

KC scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
ARI allowed	4.5 #15	9.3 #30	13.8 #31	7.5 #28	8.3 #26	15.8 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.