Raiders @ Broncos: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Denver Broncos · Division game

Las Vegas Raiders

3-3 · Power #23

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Denver Broncos

4-2 · Power #16

projected

LV 26%

74% DEN

Spread

DEN -7.5

Total

41.5

model 44

Spread edge

LV by 3.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -7.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDEN -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now41.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (125 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -7.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 7.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.7 against an average line of 7.2; 45.3 points a game (usually 47). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JAX vs TEN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-6.5	34–14	W	O40
Close	LAC vs NO 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	26–8	W	U41.5
Close	PHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	38–20	W	O43.5
Close	PHI vs CHI 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & season form	-7	15–24	L	U43.5
Close	NE vs NYJ 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	26–19	L	O42.5
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Postseason · close · similar total & rest	-9.5	23–14	L	U41.5
Close	NO vs CHI 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar total & spread	-6.5	24–17	W	P41
Close	TB vs NO 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	20–24	L	O41.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	22–27	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WWWLW	5-1	83%	2-1	4-1
DEN WWLWW	4-2	67%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOOOO	4-2	67%	3-3
DEN UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

In 428 games with totals 38.5–44.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
DEN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Las Vegas Raiders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 29	@ CLE	L10–24LU
Dec 13	vs LAC	W26–14WU
Dec 20	vs DEN	L17–24WO

Denver Broncos

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	@ PIT	L6–13
Dec 6	vs MIA	L20–70
Dec 13	@ NYJ	W13–11LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

LV 23–31 DEN DEN leads · 54 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2025	Denver Broncos 24 @ Las Vegas Raiders 17	DEN -8.5	LV W
Nov 6 2025	Las Vegas Raiders 7 @ Denver Broncos 10	DEN -9.5	LV W
Nov 24 2024	Denver Broncos 29 @ Las Vegas Raiders 19	DEN -5.5	DEN W
Oct 6 2024	Las Vegas Raiders 18 @ Denver Broncos 34	DEN -2.5	DEN W
Jan 7 2023	Denver Broncos 14 @ Las Vegas Raiders 27	LV -3	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−3.0 →−2.1▲ 0.9#23

DEN+1.2 →+0.3▼ 0.9#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

Longer bar = better

DEN

#13

Offense

◀ LV better

#28

#26

Defense

DEN better ▶

+0.3 #15

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

+0.7 #7

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ LV faster

57 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Even matchup

	LV off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	20.8 #11	LV
Yards / play	5.33 #16	5.05 #13	Even
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	−0.04 #9	DEN
Success rate	43% #17	40% #4	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Even matchup

	DEN off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #26	27.0 #26	Even
Yards / play	4.40 #31	5.99 #29	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	+0.03 #22	Even
Success rate	38% #28	45% #26	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.2 #8	7.5 #11	12.7 #11	4.3 #19	10.0 #2	14.3 #8
DEN allowed	2.8 #7	5.3 #8	8.2 #5	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

DEN scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	3.7 #21	8.7 #7	12.3 #12
LV allowed	5.0 #17	6.7 #17	11.7 #18	8.7 #31	6.7 #15	15.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.