Steelers @ Eagles: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 11, 2026)

Sun, Nov 22, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 11 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #17

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Philadelphia Eagles

2-4 · Power #24

projected

PIT 32%

68% PHI

Spread

PHI -5.5

Total

42.5

model 41.5

Spread edge

PIT by 5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentPHI -5.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowPHI -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 48% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentPHI -5.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 5.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.2 against an average line of 5; 53.8 points a game (usually 46). Of the 8 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NE vs PIT 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	20–3	W	U41.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	CIN vs NYJ 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	38–39	L	O43.5
Close	BAL vs PIT 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	22–27	L	O43.5
Close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Close	HOU vs TEN 2023 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & total	-5.5	26–3	W	U44
Close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Close	SEA vs PIT 2023 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & season form	-4	23–30	L	O40.5
Close	ARI vs SF 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	47–24	W	O42.5
Close	IND vs TEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & spread	-4.5	38–30	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LWLWW	4-2	67%	1-2	1-1
PHI LLWWL	2-4	33%	1-2	0-3

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2
PHI OUOUU	3-3	50%	2-4

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
PHI	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pittsburgh Steelers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 27	vs DEN	W13–6
Dec 6	vs HOU	L6–30LU
Dec 14	@ JAX	L10–20LU

Philadelphia Eagles

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 26	@ DAL	L21–24LU
Dec 6	@ ARI	L31–35LO
Dec 13	vs IND	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PIT 3–5 PHI PHI leads · 8 games since 2000 · PHI has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 15 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 13 @ Philadelphia Eagles 27	PHI -5.5	PHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.5 →+0.2▲ 0.7#17

PHI+1.1 →−2.3▼ 3.4#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW10

PIT

Longer bar = better

PHI

#21

Offense

◀ PIT better

#30

Defense

◀ PIT better

#21

+0.5 #10

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.3 #20

64 plays #10

Pace

◀ PIT faster

58 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	22.8 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #21	5.38 #17	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	+0.08 #27	Even
Success rate	41% #23	45% #25	Even

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	PHI off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #29	21.3 #12	PIT
Yards / play	4.38 #32	4.99 #8	PIT
EPA / play	−0.13 #30	−0.06 #5	PIT
Success rate	36% #30	42% #7	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.2 #8	5.3 #22	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	8.8 #5	11.2 #20
PHI allowed	5.0 #17	4.3 #6	9.3 #9	3.8 #9	9.7 #31	13.5 #26

PHI scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	0.5 #32	12.2 #2	12.7 #11	1.0 #32	4.0 #30	5.0 #32
PIT allowed	5.0 #17	8.5 #25	13.5 #27	3.0 #4	4.8 #5	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.