Rams @ Cardinals: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Arizona Cardinals · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Rams

2-4 · Power #5

projected

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Arizona Cardinals

2-4 · Power #28

projected

LAR 82%

18% ARI

Spread

LAR -10.5

Total

47.5

model 48

Spread edge

ARI by 4

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -10.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAR -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -10.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 10.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 8 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.9 against an average line of 9.4; 53.5 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	LAR @ ARI 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	45–17	W	O49.5
Close	MIA @ WSH 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total	-8.5	45–15	W	O49.5
Close	LAR @ CAR 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & spread	-10	28–31	L	O44.5
Close	BUF @ MIA 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation	-8.5	13–30	L	U50.5
Close	LAR @ CAR 2025 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-10	34–31	L	O44.5
Close	KC @ LV 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & rest	-9	31–17	W	O42.5
Loose	DAL @ WSH 2025 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form & situation	-8.5	30–23	L	O50.5
Loose	LAC @ TEN 2025 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-9.5	27–20	L	O44.5
Loose	BAL @ ARI 2023 · Week 8 · loose · similar rest & spread	-9.5	31–24	L	O45
Loose	DAL @ CAR 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar spread	-11	33–10	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	1-4
ARI LWLLW	3-3	50%	0-2	3-2

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
ARI UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
ARI	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Los Angeles Rams

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	vs GB	L19–24LU
Dec 3	vs KC	No meeting since 2023
Dec 13	@ SF	L7–27LU

Arizona Cardinals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ KC	No meeting since 2023
Nov 29	vs WSH	L14–42LO
Dec 6	vs PHI	W35–31WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

LAR 29–21 ARI LAR leads · 50 games since 2002 · ARI has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2026	Arizona Cardinals 18 @ Los Angeles Rams 16	LAR -13.5	ARI W
Jan 4 2025	Arizona Cardinals 20 @ Los Angeles Rams 37	LAR -14.5	LAR W
Dec 7 2025	Los Angeles Rams 45 @ Arizona Cardinals 17	LAR -9.5	LAR W
Dec 28 2024	Arizona Cardinals 9 @ Los Angeles Rams 13	LAR -6.5	ARI W
Sep 15 2024	Los Angeles Rams 10 @ Arizona Cardinals 41	ARI -1.5	ARI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+3.0 →+3.1▲ 0.1#5

ARI−1.3 →−2.5▼ 1.2#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

LAR

Longer bar = better

ARI

#12

Offense

◀ LAR better

#20

#13

Defense

◀ LAR better

#29

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

ARI better ▶

+0.3 #13

68 plays #3

Pace

Even

67 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #20	29.7 #32	LAR
Yards / play	5.87 #8	6.01 #30	LAR
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	+0.08 #28	LAR
Success rate	47% #7	45% #24	LAR

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	ARI off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #24	23.0 #18	LAR
Yards / play	4.56 #28	4.85 #7	LAR
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	−0.04 #10	LAR
Success rate	46% #11	44% #18	ARI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.3 #23	7.2 #14	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	9.7 #3	12.0 #14
ARI allowed	4.5 #15	9.3 #30	13.8 #31	7.5 #28	8.3 #26	15.8 #29

ARI scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.2 #8	4.7 #26	9.8 #19	4.5 #18	6.7 #19	11.2 #20
LAR allowed	2.5 #6	6.7 #17	9.2 #8	5.8 #24	7.5 #19	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.