Panthers @ Saints: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

3-2 · Power #13

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #29

projected

CAR 46%

54% NO

Spread

NO -1.5

Total

43.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

CAR by 4

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNO -1.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowNO -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNO -1.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 1.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.8 against an average line of 2; 44.4 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Very close	DEN vs MIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	21–20	L	U43
Very close	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5
Very close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5
Very close	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	29–10	W	U44
Very close	DEN vs LAR 2026 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	30–26	W	O44.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5
Close	TB vs NO 2023 · Week 17 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	13–23	L	U42.5
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Close	MIN vs WSH 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	31–0	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWLWW	3-2	60%	2-1	1-1
NO WLLLW	3-3	50%	0-3	1-2

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-2
NO UOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
NO	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Carolina Panthers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs BAL	No meeting since 2023
Nov 30	@ TB	L14–16WU
Dec 6	@ MIN	L13–21

New Orleans Saints

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ CHI	L14–26LU
Nov 29	@ CIN	No meeting since 2023
Dec 6	vs GB	L0–34LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CAR 24–31 NO NO leads · 55 games since 1999 · NO has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 14 2025	Carolina Panthers 17 @ New Orleans Saints 20	CAR -2.5	NO W
Nov 9 2025	New Orleans Saints 17 @ Carolina Panthers 7	CAR -5.5	NO W
Nov 3 2024	New Orleans Saints 22 @ Carolina Panthers 23	NO -7.5	CAR W
Sep 8 2024	Carolina Panthers 10 @ New Orleans Saints 47	NO -3.5	NO W
Dec 10 2023	Carolina Panthers 6 @ New Orleans Saints 28	NO -5.5	NO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−1.6 →+0.7▲ 2.3#13

NO−1.2 →−2.6▼ 1.4#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

CAR

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ CAR better

#19

#17

Defense

◀ CAR better

#29

+0.6 #9

Turnovers

◀ CAR better

−0.5 #23

68 plays #2

Pace

Even

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: CAR offense

	CAR off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #4	29.7 #31	CAR
Yards / play	5.91 #7	5.84 #27	CAR
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	+0.07 #25	CAR
Success rate	44% #14	49% #31	CAR

When NO has the ball

Even matchup

	NO off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	24.6 #21	NO
Yards / play	4.80 #23	5.38 #18	CAR
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	42% #20	42% #12	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	5.4 #7	9.2 #7	14.6 #5	8.6 #3	6.0 #22	14.6 #7
NO allowed	6.8 #31	6.0 #12	12.8 #23	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #28

NO scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	9.5 #1	7.7 #15	17.2 #2
CAR allowed	3.4 #12	10.0 #31	13.4 #26	3.4 #7	7.8 #21	11.2 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.