Vikings @ Packers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Sun, Nov 15, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 10 · at Green Bay Packers · Division game

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · Power #14

projected

MIN 35%

65% GB

Spread

GB -4.5

Total

45.5

model 40.5

Spread edge

MIN by 3.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentGB -4.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowGB -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (153 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentGB -4.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 4.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 3.9; 48.6 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Very close	LAR vs NO 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread	-4	30–22	W	O45.5
Very close	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Very close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Very close	DEN vs JAX 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	20–34	L	O46.5
Very close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	PHI vs DAL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	28–23	W	O46.5
Close	BUF vs PHI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	12–13	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-0	2-0
GB LLWWW	3-3	50%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0
GB UOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%
GB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Minnesota Vikings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	@ SF	W23–17WU
Nov 29	vs ATL	L6–22LU
Dec 6	vs CAR	W21–13

Green Bay Packers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 25	@ LAR	W24–19WU
Dec 6	@ NO	W34–0WU
Dec 13	vs BUF	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

MIN 24–31 GB (2 tied) GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 13 2026	Green Bay Packers 22 @ Minnesota Vikings 39	MIN -2.5	MIN W
Jan 4 2025	Green Bay Packers 3 @ Minnesota Vikings 16	MIN -13.5	GB W
Nov 23 2025	Minnesota Vikings 6 @ Green Bay Packers 23	GB -6.5	GB W
Dec 29 2024	Green Bay Packers 25 @ Minnesota Vikings 27	GB -0.5	MIN W
Sep 29 2024	Minnesota Vikings 31 @ Green Bay Packers 29	GB -2.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#8

GB+0.9 →+0.6▼ 0.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

MIN

Longer bar = better

#27

Offense

GB better ▶

#19

Defense

◀ MIN better

#10

+1.2 #1

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

+0.7 #6

61 plays #20

Pace

Even

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: GB defense

	MIN off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	20.8 #10	GB
Yards / play	4.61 #27	4.64 #3	GB
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	−0.06 #7	GB
Success rate	36% #32	44% #21	GB

When GB has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	GB off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #23	12.8 #1	MIN
Yards / play	5.43 #14	4.62 #2	MIN
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	−0.21 #1	MIN
Success rate	40% #25	33% #1	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.4 #15	5.2 #24	9.6 #21	3.4 #23	8.8 #6	12.2 #13
GB allowed	1.7 #2	6.3 #16	8.0 #4	4.7 #18	8.2 #22	12.8 #20

GB scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #12	12.3 #14	3.7 #21	4.7 #26	8.3 #30
MIN allowed	3.8 #13	4.0 #4	7.8 #3	4.4 #14	0.6 #1	5.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.