Panthers @ Vikings: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sun, Dec 6, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Minnesota Vikings

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

3-2 · Power #13

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

projected

CAR 38%

62% MIN

Spread

MIN -3.5

Total

42.5

model 43

Spread edge

Even

matches market

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIN -3.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowMIN -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIN -3.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 3.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 3.5; 44.1 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs SF 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	26–15	W	U41.5
Very close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Very close	HOU vs DEN 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	15–18	L	U41.5
Very close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Very close	DEN vs JAX 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–34	L	O46.5
Very close	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Very close	ATL vs BAL 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	23–30	L	O44.5
Very close	BAL vs DET 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	38–6	W	O43.5
Very close	KC vs HOU 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-4.5	10–20	L	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWLWW	3-2	60%	2-1	1-1
MIN WWWLW	4-1	80%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-2
MIN OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
MIN	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Carolina Panthers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs NO	L17–20LU
Dec 20	vs CIN	L24–34LO
Dec 27	@ PIT	No meeting since 2023

Minnesota Vikings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 10	@ NE	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	vs DET	W23–10WU
Dec 27	vs WSH	W31–0WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CAR 6–9 MIN MIN leads · 15 games since 2000 · MIN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 1 2023	Minnesota Vikings 21 @ Carolina Panthers 13	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−1.6 →+0.7▲ 2.3#13

MIN+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

CAR

Longer bar = better

MIN

Offense

◀ CAR better

#27

#17

Defense

MIN better ▶

+0.6 #9

Turnovers

MIN better ▶

+1.2 #1

68 plays #2

Pace

◀ CAR faster

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	CAR off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #4	12.8 #1	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #7	4.62 #2	MIN
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	−0.21 #1	MIN
Success rate	44% #14	33% #1	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: CAR defense

	MIN off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	24.6 #21	Even
Yards / play	4.61 #27	5.38 #18	CAR
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	−0.01 #17	CAR
Success rate	36% #32	42% #12	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	5.4 #7	9.2 #7	14.6 #5	8.6 #3	6.0 #22	14.6 #7
MIN allowed	3.8 #13	4.0 #4	7.8 #3	4.4 #14	0.6 #1	5.0 #1

MIN scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.4 #15	5.2 #24	9.6 #21	3.4 #23	8.8 #6	12.2 #13
CAR allowed	3.4 #12	10.0 #31	13.4 #26	3.4 #7	7.8 #21	11.2 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.