Panthers @ Steelers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Sun, Dec 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 16 · at Pittsburgh Steelers

Carolina Panthers

3-2 · Power #13

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #17

projected

CAR 39%

61% PIT

Spread

PIT -3.5

Total

41.5

model 46

Spread edge

CAR by 3

lean · context

Pick this game

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentPIT -3.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowPIT -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now41.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentPIT -3.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 3.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

7 of 978%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 49%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.1 against an average line of 3.2; 47.3 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs MIN 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & situation	-3	27–24	P	O41.5
Very close	LAR vs CLE 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	36–19	W	O39.5
Very close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Very close	TB vs NO 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	13–23	L	U42.5
Very close	GB vs TB 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-4	20–34	L	O41
Very close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Very close	HOU vs SF 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	26–15	W	U41.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5
Very close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	28–15	W	U43.5
Very close	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	29–10	W	U44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWLWW	3-2	60%	2-1	1-1
PIT LWLWW	4-2	67%	3-0	3-1

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; PIT home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-2
PIT UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2

In 428 games with totals 38.5–44.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Carolina Panthers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs SEA	L10–27LU
Jan 10	vs ATL	W34–3WU

Pittsburgh Steelers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ TEN	W20–16WP
Jan 10	@ BAL	W26–24WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

CAR 0–7 PIT PIT leads · 7 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 7 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−1.6 →+0.7▲ 2.3#13

PIT−0.5 →+0.2▲ 0.7#17

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

CAR

Longer bar = better

PIT

Offense

◀ CAR better

#21

#17

Defense

PIT better ▶

+0.6 #9

Turnovers

Even

+0.5 #10

68 plays #2

Pace

◀ CAR faster

64 plays #10

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #4	21.3 #12	CAR
Yards / play	5.91 #7	4.99 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	−0.06 #5	Even
Success rate	44% #14	42% #7	PIT

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	24.6 #21	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #21	5.38 #18	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.01 #17	CAR
Success rate	41% #23	42% #12	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	5.4 #7	9.2 #7	14.6 #5	8.6 #3	6.0 #22	14.6 #7
PIT allowed	5.0 #17	8.5 #25	13.5 #27	3.0 #4	4.8 #5	7.8 #3

PIT scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.2 #8	5.3 #22	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	8.8 #5	11.2 #20
CAR allowed	3.4 #12	10.0 #31	13.4 #26	3.4 #7	7.8 #21	11.2 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.