Steelers @ Ravens: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at Baltimore Ravens · Division game

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #17

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Baltimore Ravens

4-2 · Power #10

projected

PIT 31%

69% BAL

Spread

BAL -5.5

Total

43.5

model 45.5

Spread edge

BAL by 0.5

no lean

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -5.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBAL -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 48% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -5.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 5.5-point home favorite against PIT, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.4 against an average line of 5.7; 45.4 points a game (usually 46). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs LAC 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	13–16	L	U41.5
Very close	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-6.5	30–12	W	U43.5
Very close	BUF vs TB 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & total	-6.5	44–32	W	O44.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	22–27	L	O43.5
Very close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Very close	GB vs CHI 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & season form	-6.5	28–21	W	O44.5
Very close	WSH vs TEN 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-5.5	42–19	W	O45.5
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	26–3	W	U44
Very close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LWLWW	4-2	67%	1-2	1-1
BAL LPLWL	2-3-1	40%	0-2	1-3-1

Venue/role: PIT away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2
BAL UOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
BAL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pittsburgh Steelers

No more games this season.

Baltimore Ravens

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

PIT 33–26 BAL PIT leads · 59 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Baltimore Ravens 24 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 26	BAL -4.5	PIT W
Dec 7 2025	Pittsburgh Steelers 27 @ Baltimore Ravens 22	BAL -5.5	PIT W
Jan 11 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 14 @ Baltimore Ravens 28	BAL -9.5	BAL W
Dec 21 2024	Pittsburgh Steelers 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 34	BAL -7.5	BAL W
Nov 17 2024	Baltimore Ravens 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 18	BAL -3.5	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.5 →+0.2▲ 0.7#17

BAL+0.7 →+1.9▲ 1.2#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

PIT

Longer bar = better

BAL

#21

Offense

BAL better ▶

Defense

◀ PIT better

#13

+0.5 #10

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

+0.3 #14

64 plays #10

Pace

◀ PIT faster

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	PIT off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	22.0 #15	Even
Yards / play	5.01 #21	5.04 #12	BAL
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	−0.03 #14	BAL
Success rate	41% #23	42% #9	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #7	21.3 #12	BAL
Yards / play	6.01 #4	4.99 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.11 #7	−0.06 #5	Even
Success rate	48% #5	42% #7	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.2 #8	5.3 #22	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	8.8 #5	11.2 #20
BAL allowed	5.0 #17	3.8 #3	8.8 #6	3.8 #9	9.3 #29	13.2 #22

BAL scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	8.0 #1	9.5 #6	17.5 #1	2.7 #27	4.7 #26	7.3 #31
PIT allowed	5.0 #17	8.5 #25	13.5 #27	3.0 #4	4.8 #5	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.