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| Status | Matchup | 1H spread | Move | 1H total | Model | Trend | Details |
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2026 team 1st-half records
| Team | GP | 1H ATS | Cover % | 1H O-U | Led-trailed | 1H PF | 1H PA | 1H margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers |
6 | 5-1 | 83.3% | 1-5 | 5-0-1 | 14.2 | 6.3 | +7.8 |
 Baltimore Ravens |
6 | 5-1 | 83.3% | 4-2 | 5-1 | 17.5 | 8.8 | +8.7 |
 Las Vegas Raiders |
6 | 5-1 | 83.3% | 2-4 | 4-1-1 | 12.7 | 11.7 | +1.0 |
 New England Patriots |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 2-5 | 4-3 | 12.3 | 9.1 | +3.1 |
 Chicago Bears |
7 | 5-2 | 71.4% | 3-4 | 5-2 | 15.0 | 10.7 | +4.3 |
 New York Jets |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 0-6 | 2-3-1 | 6.2 | 9.3 | -3.2 |
 Indianapolis Colts |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 3-3 | 4-2 | 13.7 | 13.0 | +0.7 |
 Jacksonville Jaguars |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 2-4 | 4-2 | 13.7 | 6.7 | +7.0 |
 Green Bay Packers |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 2-4 | 4-1-1 | 12.3 | 8.0 | +4.3 |
 Philadelphia Eagles |
6 | 4-2 | 66.7% | 3-3 | 4-2 | 12.7 | 9.3 | +3.3 |
 Cincinnati Bengals |
5 | 3-2 | 60% | 3-2 | 3-1-1 | 14.4 | 10.0 | +4.4 |
 Carolina Panthers |
5 | 3-2 | 60% | 3-2 | 2-2-1 | 14.6 | 13.4 | +1.2 |
 Minnesota Vikings |
5 | 3-2 | 60% | 2-3 | 3-2 | 9.6 | 7.8 | +1.8 |
 Pittsburgh Steelers |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 3-3 | 2-3-1 | 10.5 | 13.5 | -3.0 |
 Atlanta Falcons |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 5-1 | 3-3 | 12.0 | 12.8 | -0.8 |
 Cleveland Browns |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 2-4 | 2-4 | 7.2 | 10.5 | -3.3 |
 Houston Texans |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 2-4 | 3-3 | 12.7 | 11.2 | +1.5 |
 Buffalo Bills |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 3-3 | 4-0-2 | 17.3 | 12.5 | +4.8 |
 Arizona Cardinals |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 2-4 | 1-3-2 | 9.8 | 13.8 | -4.0 |
 New York Giants |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 1-5 | 3-2-1 | 9.7 | 10.0 | -0.3 |
 Denver Broncos |
6 | 3-3 | 50% | 1-5 | 2-3-1 | 6.2 | 8.2 | -2.0 |
 Detroit Lions |
5 | 2-3 | 40% | 3-2 | 3-1-1 | 13.4 | 11.4 | +2.0 |
 Kansas City Chiefs |
5 | 2-3 | 40% | 3-2 | 3-2 | 14.8 | 10.0 | +4.8 |
 Los Angeles Rams |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 1-5 | 2-3-1 | 10.5 | 9.2 | +1.3 |
 Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 2-4 | 2-4 | 9.3 | 11.7 | -2.3 |
 New Orleans Saints |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 2-4 | 1-4-1 | 7.2 | 12.8 | -5.7 |
 Washington Commanders |
6 | 2-4 | 33.3% | 3-3 | 2-4 | 9.5 | 12.3 | -2.8 |
 Miami Dolphins |
5 | 1-4 | 20% | 2-3 | 0-5 | 5.2 | 15.0 | -9.8 |
 Seattle Seahawks |
6 | 1-5 | 16.7% | 3-3 | 1-4-1 | 8.8 | 12.0 | -3.2 |
 Los Angeles Chargers |
6 | 1-5 | 16.7% | 2-4 | 0-5-1 | 6.0 | 13.7 | -7.7 |
 Dallas Cowboys |
6 | 1-5 | 16.7% | 2-4 | 2-4 | 8.8 | 13.5 | -4.7 |
 Tennessee Titans |
6 | 0-6 | 0% | 2-4 | 0-6 | 3.8 | 13.7 | -9.8 |
How it works
Halftime scores come from ESPN quarter scores (Q1 + Q2) for every game since 2015.
1st-half lines. Real 1st-half lines come from ESPN’s odds feed (DraftKings, 2025 on) and The Odds API’s US books where a game has them; every other game is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.555, total × 0.5, rounded to the half point, the ratios real NFL 1st-half lines show). A real line shows its book; an estimated one is marked “est.”
Projection. The full-game model's margin and total, scaled the same way, with 25% of the margin from ratings fitted to 1st-half scores. The blend was chosen by the lowest walk-forward error.
Spread edge and Total edge. The model’s 1st-half line (total) minus the market’s, in points. A lean starts when the projection beats the 1H line by 1.5–5 pts (ATS) or 2.5+ pts (O/U). Shown for context: neither has a proven edge.
Picks and prices. For a game with a posted 1st-half line, tap Pick on its tile to save a 1H spread or total pick (graded on the halftime score; they show in My picks). The game card’s Market tab lists every book’s 1st-half price.
NFL first-half betting FAQ
What is a first-half spread in the NFL?
A first-half (1H) spread is a point spread graded on the score at halftime only. A team covers the 1st-half spread when its 1st-half margin plus its 1st-half line is positive; the 2nd half and overtime don't count.
How are NFL first-half lines set here?
Real 1st-half lines come from ESPN’s odds feed (DraftKings, 2025 on) and The Odds API’s US books where a game has them; every other game is estimated from the full-game closing line (spread × 0.555, total × 0.5, rounded to the half point, the ratios real NFL 1st-half lines show).
How is the 1st-half projection made?
The full-game power-rating model's margin and total are scaled to the first half, with 25% of the margin from ratings fitted to 1st-half scores. Every past week is predicted only from games played before it.
Do the 1st-half leans beat the market?
Not so far. Over 2016–26, 1st-half ATS leans went 479-476 (50.2%) and over/under leans 101-106 (48.8%), below or near the 52.4% needed to break even at -110 odds, so they are shown as context only.
How often does the model pick the team leading at halftime?
61.9% of 2,855 NFL games in the 2016–26 walk-forward backtest.