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NFL · 1st half

NFL first-half team trends · 2026

NFL first-half team trends, 2026

Who covers the 1st half, who goes over or under at halftime, who starts fast and who finishes strong. Graded against 1st-half lines (real ESPN lines for the NFL from 2025, otherwise estimated).

Best 1st-half ATS

3+ games
1San Francisco 49ers5-183.3%
2Baltimore Ravens5-183.3%
3Las Vegas Raiders5-183.3%
4New England Patriots5-271.4%
5Chicago Bears5-271.4%
6New York Jets4-266.7%
7Indianapolis Colts4-266.7%
8Jacksonville Jaguars4-266.7%

Worst 1st-half ATS

3+ games
1Tennessee Titans0-60%
2Seattle Seahawks1-516.7%
3Los Angeles Chargers1-516.7%
4Dallas Cowboys1-516.7%
5Miami Dolphins1-420%
6Los Angeles Rams2-433.3%
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers2-433.3%
8New Orleans Saints2-433.3%

1st-half overs

Over the 1H total
1Atlanta Falcons5-183.3%
2Baltimore Ravens4-266.7%
3Cincinnati Bengals3-260%
4Detroit Lions3-260%
5Carolina Panthers3-260%
6Kansas City Chiefs3-260%
7Seattle Seahawks3-350%
8Indianapolis Colts3-350%

1st-half unders

Under the 1H total
1New York Jets0-6100% U
2Los Angeles Rams1-583.3% U
3San Francisco 49ers1-583.3% U
4New York Giants1-583.3% U
5Denver Broncos1-583.3% U
6New England Patriots2-571.4% U
7Tampa Bay Buccaneers2-466.7% U
8New Orleans Saints2-466.7% U

Fast starters

Ahead in the 1st half, better than in the 2nd
1Baltimore Ravens1H +8.72H -4.7
2Philadelphia Eagles1H +3.32H -8.5
3Green Bay Packers1H +4.32H -4.0
4Jacksonville Jaguars1H +7.02H +1.3
5Buffalo Bills1H +4.82H -0.5
6Cincinnati Bengals1H +4.42H -0.6
7Indianapolis Colts1H +0.72H -4.0
8San Francisco 49ers1H +7.82H +3.3

Active 1H cover streaks

Consecutive 1st halves covered or missed
1Houston TexansCovered 3
2Green Bay PackersCovered 3
3Denver BroncosCovered 3
4San Francisco 49ersCovered 2
5Tampa Bay BuccaneersCovered 2
6New Orleans SaintsCovered 2
7Carolina PanthersCovered 2
8Chicago BearsCovered 2

1st-half ATS splits

Home / away, 1st-half favorite / underdog, last 5 games and current streak
TeamGP1H ATSCover %HomeAwayAs favAs dogLast 51H O-UStreak
San Francisco 49ers65-183.3% 3-11-0 3-12-0 4-11-5 W2
Baltimore Ravens65-183.3% 2-02-1 5-00-1 4-14-2 W1
Las Vegas Raiders65-183.3% 3-02-1 1-04-1 4-12-4 W1
New England Patriots75-271.4% 3-02-2 3-12-1 3-22-5 L1
Chicago Bears75-271.4% 3-12-1 3-22-0 4-13-4 W2
New York Jets64-266.7% 2-02-2 2-02-2 3-20-6 L1
Indianapolis Colts64-266.7% 2-11-1 2-02-2 4-13-3 W1
Jacksonville Jaguars64-266.7% 2-02-0 3-21-0 3-22-4 L2
Green Bay Packers64-266.7% 2-12-1 1-23-0 3-22-4 W3
Philadelphia Eagles64-266.7% 2-11-1 2-12-1 3-23-3 L1
Cincinnati Bengals53-260% 1-12-1 2-11-1 3-23-2 W1
Carolina Panthers53-260% 1-12-1 2-11-1 3-23-2 W2
Minnesota Vikings53-260% 1-12-1 2-21-0 3-22-3 L1
Pittsburgh Steelers63-350% 3-00-3 2-21-1 2-33-3 L1
Atlanta Falcons63-350% 1-22-1 2-01-3 3-25-1 L1
Cleveland Browns63-350% 2-11-2 —3-3 3-22-4 L2
Houston Texans63-350% 1-21-1 2-21-1 3-22-4 W3
Buffalo Bills63-350% 1-22-1 2-31-0 2-33-3 L1
Arizona Cardinals63-350% 1-12-2 0-13-2 2-32-4 W1
New York Giants63-350% 3-10-2 1-12-2 2-31-5 L2
Denver Broncos63-350% 1-22-1 1-12-2 3-21-5 W3
Detroit Lions52-340% 1-11-2 2-20-1 2-33-2 W1
Kansas City Chiefs52-340% 2-10-2 2-3— 2-33-2 W1
Los Angeles Rams62-433.3% 1-21-1 2-4— 2-31-5 L3
Tampa Bay Buccaneers62-433.3% 1-31-1 0-12-3 2-32-4 W2
New Orleans Saints62-433.3% 1-21-2 0-12-3 2-32-4 W2
Washington Commanders62-433.3% 2-00-3 1-01-4 2-33-3 L1
Miami Dolphins51-420% 1-10-3 —1-4 1-42-3 L2
Seattle Seahawks61-516.7% 1-20-3 1-5— 1-43-3 L2
Los Angeles Chargers61-516.7% 0-31-2 0-21-3 1-42-4 L3
Dallas Cowboys61-516.7% 1-10-3 1-30-2 1-42-4 L4
Tennessee Titans60-60% 0-30-3 —0-6 0-52-4 L6

Starts and finishes

1st half vs 2nd half: margins, leads that held or slipped, and halves that split from the full game
TeamGPAt half1H margin2H margin1H shareLed, lostTrailed, won1H cover onlyGame cover only
Baltimore Ravens6 5-1+8.7-4.7 67% 2131
Philadelphia Eagles6 4-2+3.3-8.5 72% 2020
Green Bay Packers6 4-1-1+4.3-4.0 58% 1010
Jacksonville Jaguars6 4-2+7.0+1.3 53% 1110
Buffalo Bills6 4-0-2+4.8-0.5 53% 1001
Cincinnati Bengals5 3-1-1+4.4-0.6 56% 0010
Indianapolis Colts6 4-2+0.7-4.0 57% 2010
San Francisco 49ers6 5-0-1+7.8+3.3 48% 0021
New England Patriots7 4-3+3.1-0.7 54% 1110
Chicago Bears7 5-2+4.3+1.0 58% 0000
Los Angeles Rams6 2-3-1+1.3-1.8 47% 1110
Houston Texans6 3-3+1.5-1.3 53% 1010
Las Vegas Raiders6 4-1-1+1.0-1.0 47% 1000
Washington Commanders6 2-4-2.8-3.8 43% 0012
Detroit Lions5 3-1-1+2.0+1.2 41% 0010
Arizona Cardinals6 1-3-2-4.0-4.7 47% 0011
Atlanta Falcons6 3-3-0.8-1.0 51% 1010
New York Giants6 3-2-1-0.3-0.3 43% 0001
Tampa Bay Buccaneers6 2-4-2.3-0.8 47% 2110
Kansas City Chiefs5 3-2+4.8+6.6 53% 0201
Denver Broncos6 2-3-1-2.0+0.2 32% 0212
Carolina Panthers5 2-2-1+1.2+3.4 50% 0000
Cleveland Browns6 2-4-3.3+0.7 41% 0201
New York Jets6 2-3-1-3.2+1.5 33% 0001
Los Angeles Chargers6 0-5-1-7.7-2.5 40% 0010
Minnesota Vikings5 3-2+1.8+7.2 44% 0212
New Orleans Saints6 1-4-1-5.7+1.3 28% 1112
Miami Dolphins5 0-5-9.8-2.6 37% 0012
Pittsburgh Steelers6 2-3-1-3.0+4.5 46% 0101
Dallas Cowboys6 2-4-4.7+3.3 35% 1101
Seattle Seahawks6 1-4-1-3.2+7.5 36% 0101
Tennessee Titans6 0-6-9.8+2.3 27% 0103

1st-half trend signals

Backtest 2016–26: each game graded with the teams’ records from earlier that season · break-even 52.4%
SignalRuleRecordVerdict
Hot 1st-half cover teamCovered 70%+ of 1st halves this season (5+ decisions)190-186 (50.5%)No edge
Fade a cold 1st-half teamOpponent covered 30% or less of 1st halves this season (5+ decisions)184-185 (49.9%)No edge
1st-half over teamsBoth teams went over in 65%+ of their 1st halves (4+ each)40-30 (57.1%)Not proven yet
1st-half under teamsBoth teams went under in 65%+ of their 1st halves (4+ each)48-49 (49.5%)No edge
Fast starter edgeAverage 1st-half margins point past the 1st-half line337-341 (49.7%)No edge
These trends appear on the weekly Halftime table when a game qualifies. None has a proven edge yet, so they describe the data rather than pick bets.