Browns @ Ravens: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Sun, Dec 27, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Baltimore Ravens · Division game

Cleveland Browns

4-2 · Power #30

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Baltimore Ravens

4-2 · Power #10

projected

CLE 18%

82% BAL

Spread

BAL -10

Total

43.5

model 43

Spread edge

Even

matches market

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -10

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBAL -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8–12 since 2023: won 73%, covered 45% (56 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBAL -10

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BAL as a 10-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10.6 against an average line of 10.1; 40 points a game (usually 47). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Very close	BUF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-10.5	40–14	W	O44.5
Very close	KC vs LV 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & season form	-11	14–20	L	U40.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	28–14	W	U44.5
Very close	SEA vs ARI 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	20–10	W	U43.5
Very close	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Very close	BUF vs PIT 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-10	31–17	W	O39.5
Close	DEN vs LV 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-9.5	10–7	L	U41.5
Close	BUF vs TB 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-10	24–18	L	U43

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE WWWLW	4-2	67%	1-2	4-2
BAL LPLWL	2-3-1	40%	0-2	1-3-1

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; BAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OUOUU	3-3	50%	4-2
BAL UOOOU	4-2	67%	4-2

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
BAL	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Cleveland Browns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs IND	W39–38LO
Jan 10	@ CIN	W20–18WU

Baltimore Ravens

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 31	@ CIN	W24–0WU
Jan 10	vs PIT	L24–26LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CLE 16–39 BAL BAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2026	Baltimore Ravens 10 @ Cleveland Browns 13	BAL -3	CLE W
Nov 16 2025	Baltimore Ravens 23 @ Cleveland Browns 16	BAL -7.5	CLE W
Sep 14 2025	Cleveland Browns 17 @ Baltimore Ravens 41	BAL -12.5	BAL W
Jan 4 2024	Cleveland Browns 10 @ Baltimore Ravens 35	BAL -20.5	BAL W
Oct 27 2024	Baltimore Ravens 24 @ Cleveland Browns 29	BAL -7.5	CLE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−1.8 →−2.8▼ 1.0#30

BAL+0.7 →+1.9▲ 1.2#10

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

CLE

Longer bar = better

BAL

#27

Offense

BAL better ▶

#10

Defense

Even

#13

0.0 #17

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #14

59 plays #26

Pace

BAL faster ▶

61 plays #21

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Advantage: BAL defense

	CLE off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #28	22.0 #15	BAL
Yards / play	4.53 #29	5.04 #12	BAL
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	−0.03 #14	BAL
Success rate	40% #26	42% #9	BAL

When BAL has the ball

Even matchup

	BAL off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	26.0 #7	20.3 #5	Even
Yards / play	6.01 #4	5.03 #10	BAL
EPA / play	+0.11 #7	−0.03 #13	BAL
Success rate	48% #5	42% #10	BAL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	2.7 #27	7.8 #13	10.5 #24
BAL allowed	5.0 #17	3.8 #3	8.8 #6	3.8 #9	9.3 #29	13.2 #22

BAL scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	8.0 #1	9.5 #6	17.5 #1	2.7 #27	4.7 #26	7.3 #31
CLE allowed	7.3 #32	3.2 #1	10.5 #14	3.8 #9	6.0 #9	9.8 #7

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.