49ers @ Chiefs: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Sun, Dec 27, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Kansas City Chiefs

San Francisco 49ers

6-0 · Power #3

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

SF 40%

60% KC

Spread

KC -3

Total

46.5

model 46.5

Spread edge

SF by 3

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentKC -3

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowKC -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (204 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentKC -3

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as a 3-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 8 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 9.6 against an average line of 3; 54.6 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 8 overs, 4 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs MIA 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3	56–19	W	O47
Very close	SEA vs SF 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	29–32	L	O46.5
Very close	BUF vs DAL 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	31–10	W	U49
Very close	SEA vs LAR 2025 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	31–27	W	O45.5
Very close	BAL vs DET 2023 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	38–6	W	O43.5
Very close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Very close	PHI vs DAL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & spread	-3.5	28–23	W	O46.5
Very close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Very close	LAR vs SEA 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	21–19	L	U49.5
Very close	DEN vs JAX 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	20–34	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	2-0
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OOUOU	3-3	50%	6-0
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San Francisco 49ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs PHI	W23–19WU
Jan 10	@ ARI	W36–30LO

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ LAC	W22–6WU
Jan 10	vs LV	W30–27LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SF 3–7 KC KC leads · 10 games since 2000 · KC has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 20 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 28 @ San Francisco 49ers 18	SF -2.5	KC W
Feb 11 2023	San Francisco 49ers 22 @ Kansas City Chiefs 25	SF -2	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+3.7▲ 2.8#3

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

Offense

Even

Defense

KC better ▶

+0.2 #16

Turnovers

KC better ▶

+1.0 #2

57 plays #29

Pace

KC faster ▶

62 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Even matchup

	SF off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #3	16.6 #2	Even
Yards / play	6.40 #3	4.81 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	−0.10 #3	Even
Success rate	53% #1	38% #3	Even

When KC has the ball

Even matchup

	KC off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	18.3 #4	Even
Yards / play	6.70 #1	4.75 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	−0.06 #6	Even
Success rate	49% #2	43% #16	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.2 #4	8.0 #10	14.2 #7	7.3 #5	8.0 #12	15.3 #5
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

KC scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
SF allowed	2.2 #4	4.2 #5	6.3 #1	4.5 #15	7.5 #19	12.0 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.