Jaguars @ Cowboys: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Sun, Dec 27, 2026, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Dallas Cowboys

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #6

projected

Sun 8:20 PM ET

Dallas Cowboys

2-4 · Power #20

projected

JAX 41%

59% DAL

Spread

DAL -3

Total

51.5

model 50.5

Spread edge

JAX by 6

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -3

Total51.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDAL -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now51.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (204 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -3

Total51.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 3-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 48%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 1.5 against an average line of 2.7; 53.1 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DAL vs WSH 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	44–22	W	O54.5
Very close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	CHI vs DET 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total	-3	16–19	L	U51.5
Close	DAL vs LAC 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & rest	-1.5	17–34	L	O50.5
Close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Close	CHI vs NE 2026 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total	-3	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Close	CIN vs BUF 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar spread	-2.5	24–18	W	U48.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
DAL WPWLL	2-3-1	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
DAL OOOUU	4-2	67%	2-4

In 159 games with totals 48.5–54.5, 48% went over; 0% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 18% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
DAL	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jacksonville Jaguars

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs WSH	No meeting since 2023
Jan 10	@ IND	W23–17WU

Dallas Cowboys

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs NYG	L20–28LO
Jan 10	@ WSH	W37–20WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

JAX 4–3 DAL JAX leads · 7 games since 2000 · JAX has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+1.4 →+3.0▲ 1.6#6

DAL−0.6 →−1.3▼ 0.7#20

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

JAX

Longer bar = better

DAL

Offense

◀ JAX better

#11

#14

Defense

◀ JAX better

#30

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−0.7 #27

60 plays #23

Pace

DAL faster ▶

63 plays #15

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	26.5 #25	JAX
Yards / play	5.78 #9	6.04 #31	JAX
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	+0.16 #32	JAX
Success rate	48% #6	49% #32	JAX

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #12	17.3 #3	JAX
Yards / play	5.49 #13	5.82 #26	DAL
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	−0.04 #12	Even
Success rate	47% #9	43% #13	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	9.7 #5	13.7 #8	6.7 #8	5.3 #24	12.0 #14
DAL allowed	5.2 #22	8.3 #24	13.5 #27	7.3 #27	5.7 #7	13.0 #21

DAL scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	5.0 #11	3.8 #27	8.8 #24	7.7 #4	8.7 #7	16.3 #3
JAX allowed	1.2 #1	5.5 #9	6.7 #2	4.5 #15	6.2 #12	10.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.