Chargers @ Buccaneers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sun, Dec 6, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 · Power #25

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-5 · Power #19

projected

LAC 58%

42% TB

Spread

LAC -2.5

Total

46.5

model 42

Spread edge

TB by 3.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -2.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAC -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (187 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -2.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 2.5-point road favorite at TB, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 2.2; 45.9 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NO @ NYG 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & rest	-1.5	34–27	W	O46.5
Very close	MIA @ CAR 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar season form & rest	-1.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Very close	PIT @ NE 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-1.5	21–14	W	U44.5
Very close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Very close	ATL @ ARI 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	26–19	W	U48.5
Very close	CIN @ MIA 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	45–21	W	O48.5
Very close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	CLE @ NO 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-1.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5
Close	TB @ CAR 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-3	20–23	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff

Model Favorite

Los Angeles Chargers 58%

Projected LAC 22 – TB 20 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest

Model line

TB -1

Market LAC -2.5

Against the spread

Lean TB +2.5

3.3-pt edge · No edge, context only · 458-426 (51.8%)

Total

No lean

Model 42 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.

How the model gets there (points from TB’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)

SpreadTB rating edge+1.0+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap−0.5+Travel−1.5=Model marginTB by 0.8

TotalScoring ratings42.1=Model total42.1

Signals

The data signal, and 5 trends and market moves behind it

Moderate Los Angeles Chargers ATS trend

Moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Los Angeles Chargers ATS struggles (0-5-1)

Los Angeles Chargers have covered only 0% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ATS struggles (1-5)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered only 17% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers home ATS weakness (0-4)

Weak against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 71-65 (52%)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-3 ATS as an underdog

Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 69-56 (55%)

Los Angeles Chargers on a cross-country trip

Los Angeles Chargers cross 3 time zones (2,152 miles); NFL teams on 3-zone trips have covered more often than the line expects. · Backtest 2023–26: 67-60 (53%)

beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LLPLL	0-5-1	0%	0-2-1	0-2
TB LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-4	1-3

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; TB home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOUU	1-5	17%	0-6
TB OUUUO	3-3	50%	1-5

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	1-9 10%	1-8-1 11%	2-8 20%
TB	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Los Angeles Chargers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ LV	L14–26LU
Dec 17	vs SF	No meeting since 2023
Dec 27	@ MIA	W29–27LO

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ BAL	L31–41LO
Dec 20	vs NO	L20–24LO
Dec 27	@ ATL	L28–29LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

LAC 2–4 TB TB leads · 6 games since 2004 · TB has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 15 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40 @ Los Angeles Chargers 17	LAC -3	TB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.6 →−2.3▼ 2.9#25

TB−0.2 →−1.2▼ 1.0#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

LAC

Longer bar = better

#30

Offense

TB better ▶

#27

#17

Defense

TB better ▶

−0.8 #29

Turnovers

TB better ▶

−0.5 #22

62 plays #18

Pace

TB faster ▶

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	LAC off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	23.0 #17	TB
Yards / play	4.64 #26	5.01 #9	TB
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	−0.09 #4	TB
Success rate	36% #31	41% #5	TB

When TB has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	TB off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #25	25.2 #22	Even
Yards / play	4.66 #25	5.40 #19	LAC
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	−0.04 #11	LAC
Success rate	39% #27	44% #17	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	3.8 #20	2.2 #31	6.0 #30	6.8 #7	2.2 #32	9.0 #28
TB allowed	5.7 #26	6.0 #12	11.7 #18	3.3 #5	6.8 #16	10.2 #8

TB scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #25	6.2 #17	9.3 #23	6.7 #8	3.8 #31	10.5 #24
LAC allowed	5.0 #17	8.7 #26	13.7 #29	3.3 #5	8.2 #22	11.5 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.