Chiefs @ Rams: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Thu, Dec 3, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Los Angeles Rams

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams

2-4 · Power #5

projected

KC 39%

61% LAR

Spread

LAR -3.5

Total

47.5

model 47

Spread edge

KC by 3.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -3.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAR -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -3.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 3.5-point home favorite against KC, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 9 went over the total.

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Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 49%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.3 against an average line of 3.2; 56.7 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 9 overs, 5 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Very close	PHI vs DAL 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	28–23	W	O46.5
Very close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Very close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Very close	PHI vs DET 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	16–9	W	U45.5
Very close	PHI vs LAR 2025 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	33–26	W	O45.5
Very close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Very close	SEA vs SF 2026 · Week 5 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	29–32	L	O46.5
Very close	DEN vs JAX 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	20–34	L	O46.5
Very close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—
LAR WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0
LAR UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
LAR	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ CIN	W26–25LO
Dec 21	vs NE	W27–17PO
Dec 27	vs SF	W28–18WU

Los Angeles Rams

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ SF	L7–27LU
Dec 20	vs DAL	L20–43LO
Dec 25	@ SEA	L27–31LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

KC 6–1 LAR KC leads · 7 games since 2000 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

LAR+3.0 →+3.1▲ 0.1#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

Longer bar = better

LAR

Offense

◀ KC better

#12

Defense

◀ KC better

#13

+1.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−0.5 #25

62 plays #19

Pace

LAR faster ▶

68 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	23.0 #18	KC
Yards / play	6.70 #1	4.85 #7	KC
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	−0.04 #10	KC
Success rate	49% #2	44% #18	KC

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LAR off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #20	16.6 #2	KC
Yards / play	5.87 #8	4.81 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.10 #3	KC
Success rate	47% #7	38% #3	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
LAR allowed	2.5 #6	6.7 #17	9.2 #8	5.8 #24	7.5 #19	13.3 #23

LAR scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.3 #23	7.2 #14	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	9.7 #3	12.0 #14
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.