Commanders @ Titans: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sun, Dec 6, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Tennessee Titans

Washington Commanders

1-4-1 · Power #26

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Tennessee Titans

1-5 · Power #32

projected

WSH 57%

43% TEN

Spread

WSH -1.5

Total

46.5

model 43.5

Spread edge

WSH by 3.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentWSH -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowWSH -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentWSH -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 1.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 6, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 2.4; 47.6 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND @ CAR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	27–13	W	U45
Very close	DAL @ CAR 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	27–30	L	O45.5
Very close	SF @ NYG 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Very close	ATL @ ARI 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	23–25	L	O43.5
Very close	MIA @ CAR 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	24–27	L	O44.5
Close	LAR @ NYJ 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	19–9	W	U46.5
Close	LAR @ ARI 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar rest & total	-3	37–14	W	O45
Close	SEA @ ARI 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & total	-3	21–20	L	U47.5
Close	TB @ CAR 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar season form & situation	-3	20–23	L	U44.5
Close	JAX @ LV 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	30–29	L	O44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	0-1
TEN WLWLW	3-3	50%	1-2	3-2

Venue/role: WSH away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUOU	4-2	67%	1-4-1
TEN OUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
TEN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Washington Commanders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs HOU	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	vs ATL	L27–34LO
Dec 27	@ MIN	L0–31LU

Tennessee Titans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ DET	L14–52LO
Dec 20	vs IND	W26–20WO
Dec 27	@ LV	L10–20LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WSH 4–4 TEN Series tied · 8 games since 2000 · WSH has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 1 2024	Tennessee Titans 19 @ Washington Commanders 42	WSH -5.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−1.6 →−2.3▼ 0.7#26

TEN−3.1 →−5.8▼ 2.7#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

WSH

Longer bar = better

TEN

#19

Offense

◀ WSH better

#29

#26

Defense

TEN better ▶

#17

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

−0.5 #24

64 plays #11

Pace

◀ WSH faster

53 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	21.5 #13	TEN
Yards / play	5.12 #18	5.21 #15	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	+0.04 #23	WSH
Success rate	41% #21	43% #15	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #31	28.7 #29	Even
Yards / play	4.46 #30	5.58 #22	WSH
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	+0.07 #24	WSH
Success rate	40% #24	48% #29	TEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.2 #17	5.3 #22	9.5 #22	5.2 #13	7.3 #17	12.5 #10
TEN allowed	3.3 #10	10.3 #32	13.7 #29	3.8 #9	4.0 #3	7.8 #3

TEN scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.3 #23	0.5 #32	3.8 #32	2.7 #27	7.5 #16	10.2 #26
WSH allowed	4.3 #14	8.0 #22	12.3 #21	7.2 #26	9.2 #28	16.3 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.