Lions @ Falcons: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 13, 2026)

Sun, Dec 6, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 13 · at Atlanta Falcons

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Detroit Lions

3-2 · Power #12

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta Falcons

2-4 · Power #18

projected

DET 62%

38% ATL

Spread

DET -3.5

Total

48.5

model 51.5

Spread edge

ATL by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -3.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDET -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (168 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -3.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 3.5-point road favorite at ATL, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 3.3; 46.6 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET @ NO 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	33–28	W	O48
Very close	SF @ ARI 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	41–22	W	O48.5
Very close	DET @ MIN 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	30–24	W	O48
Very close	ATL @ NO 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar season form & total	-4.5	17–20	L	U47.5
Very close	BAL @ MIN 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	27–19	W	U49.5
Very close	DAL @ NYG 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	17–34	L	O50.5
Very close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5
Very close	MIN @ LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	9–27	L	U47.5
Very close	KC @ ATL 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3.5	22–17	W	U46.5
Very close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET LLPLW	1-3-1	25%	1-2	1-2-1
ATL LWWLL	2-4	33%	0-3	2-3

Venue/role: DET away, as favorite; ATL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2
ATL UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	8-2 80%
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Detroit Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	vs TEN	W52–14WO
Dec 20	@ MIN	L10–23LU
Dec 28	vs NYG	W34–27LO

Atlanta Falcons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 13	@ CLE	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	@ WSH	W34–27WO
Dec 27	vs TB	W29–28WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

DET 6–7 ATL ATL leads · 13 games since 2000 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 24 2023	Atlanta Falcons 6 @ Detroit Lions 20	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#12

ATL−0.6 →−1.0▼ 0.4#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW12

DET

Longer bar = better

ATL

Offense

◀ DET better

#15

#28

Defense

ATL better ▶

#15

+0.8 #5

Turnovers

◀ DET better

−1.2 #31

66 plays #7

Pace

◀ DET faster

60 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	25.5 #23	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #6	5.03 #11	DET
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	−0.02 #16	DET
Success rate	49% #3	42% #11	DET

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #16	29.6 #30	ATL
Yards / play	5.74 #10	5.63 #24	ATL
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	+0.15 #31	ATL
Success rate	44% #13	48% #28	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.0 #29	11.4 #3	13.4 #10	9.0 #2	9.0 #4	18.0 #1
ATL allowed	6.2 #27	6.7 #17	12.8 #23	5.0 #19	6.5 #13	11.5 #14

ATL scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #5	6.2 #17	12.0 #16	3.3 #25	8.3 #11	11.7 #17
DET allowed	5.6 #25	5.8 #11	11.4 #17	8.8 #32	8.2 #25	17.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.