Panthers @ Buccaneers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Mon, Nov 30, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Division game

Carolina Panthers

3-2 · Power #13

projected

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-5 · Power #19

projected

CAR 39%

61% TB

Spread

TB -3.5

Total

44.5

model 46.5

Spread edge

CAR by 5.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTB -3.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowTB -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now44.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTB -3.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 3.5-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.7 against an average line of 3.1; 45.1 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	29–10	W	U44
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Very close	LAR vs NO 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-4	30–22	W	O45.5
Very close	DEN vs MIN 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	21–20	L	U43
Very close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5
Very close	TB vs NO 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	13–23	L	U42.5
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	28–15	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWLWW	3-2	60%	2-1	1-1
TB LLLWL	1-5	17%	0-4	0-2

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; TB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-2
TB OUUUO	3-3	50%	1-5

In 510 games with totals 41.5–47.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
TB	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Carolina Panthers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ MIN	L13–21
Dec 13	vs NO	L17–20LU
Dec 20	vs CIN	L24–34LO

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs LAC	W40–17WO
Dec 13	@ BAL	L31–41LO
Dec 20	vs NO	L20–24LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CAR 25–23 TB CAR leads · 48 games since 2002 · TB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 3 2025	Carolina Panthers 14 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16	TB -3	CAR W
Dec 21 2025	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 @ Carolina Panthers 23	TB -3	CAR W
Dec 29 2024	Carolina Panthers 14 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48	TB -9.5	TB W
Dec 1 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 @ Carolina Panthers 23	TB -6.5	CAR W
Jan 7 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 @ Carolina Panthers 0	TB -4.5	TB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−1.6 →+0.7▲ 2.3#13

TB−0.2 →−1.2▼ 1.0#19

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

CAR

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ CAR better

#27

#17

Defense

TB better ▶

+0.6 #9

Turnovers

◀ CAR better

−0.5 #22

68 plays #2

Pace

◀ CAR faster

63 plays #13

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #4	23.0 #17	CAR
Yards / play	5.91 #7	5.01 #9	Even
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	−0.09 #4	Even
Success rate	44% #14	41% #5	TB

When TB has the ball

Advantage: CAR defense

	TB off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #25	24.6 #21	Even
Yards / play	4.66 #25	5.38 #18	CAR
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	−0.01 #17	CAR
Success rate	39% #27	42% #12	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	5.4 #7	9.2 #7	14.6 #5	8.6 #3	6.0 #22	14.6 #7
TB allowed	5.7 #26	6.0 #12	11.7 #18	3.3 #5	6.8 #16	10.2 #8

TB scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #25	6.2 #17	9.3 #23	6.7 #8	3.8 #31	10.5 #24
CAR allowed	3.4 #12	10.0 #31	13.4 #26	3.4 #7	7.8 #21	11.2 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.