Commanders @ Giants: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 10, 2026)

Thu, Nov 12, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 10 · at New York Giants · Division game

Washington Commanders

1-4-1 · Power #26

projected

Thu 8:15 PM ET

New York Giants

3-2-1 · Power #22

projected

WSH 45%

55% NYG

Spread

NYG -1.5

Total

47.5

model 47

Spread edge

WSH by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNYG -1.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowNYG -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNYG -1.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYG as a 1.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1 against an average line of 2.3; 46.2 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	NYJ vs DAL 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	22–37	L	O47.5
Very close	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Very close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Very close	NO vs ATL 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	24–45	L	O48.5
Close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Close	GB vs CHI 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	17–9	W	U46
Close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Close	LV vs CHI 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	24–25	L	O46.5
Close	LAR vs MIA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	15–23	L	U50.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	7–24	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2
NYG LWWWL	4-2	67%	3-1	1-0

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; NYG home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOUOU	4-2	67%	1-4-1
NYG UUOOO	4-2	67%	3-2-1

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%
NYG	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Washington Commanders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 23	vs CIN	W38–33WO
Nov 29	@ ARI	W42–14WO
Dec 6	@ TEN	W42–19WO

New York Giants

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 22	vs JAX	No meeting since 2023
Nov 29	@ IND	W45–33WO
Dec 6	vs SF	L24–34LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

WSH 21–32 NYG (2 tied) NYG leads · 55 games since 1999

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2026	New York Giants 27 @ Washington Commanders 27	WSH -3.5	NYG W
Dec 14 2025	Washington Commanders 29 @ New York Giants 21	NYG -3	WSH W
Sep 7 2025	New York Giants 6 @ Washington Commanders 21	WSH -5.5	WSH W
Nov 3 2024	Washington Commanders 27 @ New York Giants 22	WSH -3.5	WSH W
Sep 15 2024	New York Giants 18 @ Washington Commanders 21	WSH -1.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−1.6 →−2.3▼ 0.7#26

NYG−1.1 →−1.9▼ 0.8#22

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW9

WSH

Longer bar = better

NYG

#19

Offense

Even

#19

#26

Defense

NYG better ▶

#21

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

−0.3 #21

64 plays #11

Pace

Even

66 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	23.3 #19	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #18	5.43 #20	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	+0.02 #21	WSH
Success rate	41% #21	44% #22	Even

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: NYG offense

	NYG off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #19	28.7 #29	NYG
Yards / play	5.03 #20	5.58 #22	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	+0.07 #24	NYG
Success rate	42% #18	48% #29	NYG

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.2 #17	5.3 #22	9.5 #22	5.2 #13	7.3 #17	12.5 #10
NYG allowed	4.5 #15	5.5 #9	10.0 #11	7.5 #28	5.8 #8	13.3 #23

NYG scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	3.8 #20	5.8 #21	9.7 #20	5.2 #13	7.8 #13	13.0 #9
WSH allowed	4.3 #14	8.0 #22	12.3 #21	7.2 #26	9.2 #28	16.3 #31

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.