Texans vs Jaguars: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Sun, Oct 18, 2026, 9:30 AM EDTWeek 6 · Neutral site · Division game

Weather at kickoff55°F12 mphgusts 27DryWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Houston Texans

1-4 · Power #11

▲ winner

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-1 · Power #6

final

Closing spread

JAX -2.5

✓ HOU W

Total

42.5

▲ Over · 65 pts

Model before kickoff

HOU 19–21 JAX

✗ JAX (59%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseJAX -2.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:28

Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 19, 12:30 PM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenHOU -1.5

4 → JAX

CloseJAX -2.5

4 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open41.5

▲ 1

Close42.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened HOU -1.5 · closed JAX -2.5 · moved 4 toward JAXmodel JAX -2

model JAX -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 52% (64 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenHOU -1.5

CloseJAX -2.5

Total41.5 → 42.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Prices

DraftKings · prices at kickoff

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	HOU	JAX	Over	Under	HOU	JAX
DraftKingsDK	+2.5-102	-2.5-118	42.5-105	42.5-115	+120	-142

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed. One book so far. Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 3 games most like JAX as a 2.5-point neutral-site favorite against HOU, the favorite won 2, covered 2, and 1 went over the total.

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This game: HOU won 34–31 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 3 similar games. 65 points went over 42.5, as in 1 of 3.

Favorite won

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

2 of 367%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

1 of 333%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 3 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 10.3 against an average line of 2.8; 42.3 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 1 over, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 3 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	MIN vs PIT 2025 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	21–24	L	O41.5
Loose	MIN vs NYJ 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & rest	-2.5	23–17	W	U42.5
Loose	LAR vs JAX 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3.5	35–7	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Neutral	Role
HOU LLLLW	1-4	20%	—	0-1
JAX WLWWL	3-2	60%	0-1	2-1

Venue/role: HOU neutral, as underdog; JAX neutral, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU OUUOU	2-3	40%	1-4
JAX OUUUU	1-4	20%	4-1

Went over in Q3. Of 236 earlier overs in games with totals 39.5–45.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
JAX	8-2 80%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

HOU 33–16 JAX HOU leads · 49 games since 2002 · HOU has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2025	Jacksonville Jaguars 29 @ Houston Texans 36	HOU -2.5	HOU W
Sep 21 2025	Houston Texans 10 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 17	JAX -1.5	JAX W
Dec 1 2024	Houston Texans 23 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 20	HOU -3.5	JAX W
Sep 29 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 20 @ Houston Texans 24	HOU -5.5	JAX W
Nov 26 2023	Jacksonville Jaguars 24 @ Houston Texans 21	JAX -1	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+2.4 →+1.5▼ 0.9#12

JAX+1.4 →+3.3▲ 1.9#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

HOU

Longer bar = better

JAX

#16

Offense

JAX better ▶

#10

Defense

Even

+0.6 #9

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+1.0 #3

63 plays #12

Pace

◀ HOU faster

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	HOU off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #19	14.0 #2	JAX
Yards / play	5.38 #14	5.54 #21	HOU
EPA / play	0.00 #13	−0.09 #3	JAX
Success rate	42% #18	42% #8	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Even matchup

	JAX off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	24.6 #12	22.4 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.71 #11	4.99 #8	Even
EPA / play	+0.15 #6	−0.04 #9	Even
Success rate	47% #9	39% #3	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.0 #19	7.8 #10	11.8 #15	3.4 #24	6.8 #16	10.2 #24
JAX allowed	0.0 #1	4.6 #4	4.6 #1	2.6 #2	6.8 #16	9.4 #8

JAX scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.8 #11	8.8 #7	13.6 #8	6.6 #9	4.4 #28	11.0 #19
HOU allowed	2.4 #5	8.2 #23	10.6 #12	5.4 #22	6.4 #12	11.8 #15

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.