Panthers @ Packers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Thu, Oct 29, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 8 · at Green Bay Packers

Kickoff forecast55°F10 mphgusts 16DryWeather watch ›

Carolina Panthers

3-2 · Power #13

projected

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · Power #14

projected

CAR 39%

61% GB

Spread

GB -3

open GB -7

Total

47.5

model 44.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenGB -7

CurrentGB -3

Total45.5 → 47.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenGB -7

4 → CAR

NowGB -3

4 pts toward Carolina Panthers

Total

Open45.5

▲ 2

Now47.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened GB -7 · now GB -3 · moved 4 toward CARmodel GB -3 matches the line

model GB -3 = line ✓

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: CAR by 4.2 pts (open +7, now +3). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 67.6% of the 37 games where the line moved (44 at that gap), but those sides covered 27.3% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (204 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (24 games since 2025)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenGB -7

CurrentGB -3

Total45.5 → 47.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	CAR	GB	Over	Under	CAR	GB
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3-110	-3-110	46.5-110	46.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+3-112	-3-109	46.5-109	46.5-112	+140	-175
BetUSBetUS	+3-110	-3-110	46.5-110	46.5-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+3-115	-3-105	47.5-105	47.5-115	+130	-155
FanDuelFD	+3-108	-3-112	46.5-108	46.5-112	+138	-164
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+3-105	-3-105	46.5-107	46.5-107	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:35 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Total

Over 47.5Under 47.5

Bets66% 34%

Money77% 23%

Money is 11 pts ahead of bets on Over 47.5

Winner

CAR

Bets17% 83%

Money24% 76%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 3-point home favorite against CAR, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.5 against an average line of 3.1; 50.7 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar season form	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Loose	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation & season form	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Loose	LAR vs NO 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & season form	-4	30–22	W	O45.5
Loose	ARI vs WSH 2024 · Week 4 · loose	-3.5	14–42	L	O48.5
Loose	LAC vs CIN 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & situation	-0.5	34–27	W	O48.5
Loose	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Loose	GB vs CHI 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & situation	-2.5	17–9	W	U46
Loose	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar situation & season form	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CAR LWLWW	3-2	60%	2-1	1-1
GB LLWWW	3-3	50%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: CAR away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CAR OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-2
GB UOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CAR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%
GB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Carolina Panthers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs DEN	L14–28LO
Nov 15	@ NO	L17–20LU
Nov 22	vs BAL	No meeting since 2023

Green Bay Packers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ NE	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	vs MIN	L22–39LO
Nov 25	@ LAR	W24–19WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CAR 7–9 GB GB leads · 16 games since 1999 · CAR has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2025	Carolina Panthers 16 @ Green Bay Packers 13	GB -13.5	CAR W
Dec 24 2023	Green Bay Packers 33 @ Carolina Panthers 30	GB -3.5	CAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CAR−1.6 →+0.7▲ 2.3#13

GB+0.9 →+0.6▼ 0.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

CAR

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ CAR better

#19

#17

Defense

GB better ▶

#10

+0.6 #9

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #6

68 plays #2

Pace

◀ CAR faster

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CAR has the ball

Even matchup

	CAR off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #4	20.8 #10	CAR
Yards / play	5.91 #7	4.64 #3	Even
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	−0.06 #7	Even
Success rate	44% #14	44% #21	CAR

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #23	24.6 #21	Even
Yards / play	5.43 #14	5.38 #18	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	−0.01 #17	Even
Success rate	40% #25	42% #12	CAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CAR scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	5.4 #7	9.2 #7	14.6 #5	8.6 #3	6.0 #22	14.6 #7
GB allowed	1.7 #2	6.3 #16	8.0 #4	4.7 #18	8.2 #22	12.8 #20

GB scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #12	12.3 #14	3.7 #21	4.7 #26	8.3 #30
CAR allowed	3.4 #12	10.0 #31	13.4 #26	3.4 #7	7.8 #21	11.2 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.