Sun, Oct 25, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 7 · at Carolina Panthers · Division game
TB 38%62% CAR
Spread
CAR -3
earliest TB -1.5
Total
44.5
model 44
Spread edge
CAR by 2.5
no lean
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
1H spread
1H total
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:34 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenTB -1.5
CurrentCAR -3
Total45.5 → 44.5
Last update6:34 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenTB -1.5
4.5 → CAR
NowCAR -3
4.5 pts toward Carolina Panthers
Total
Open45.5
▼ 1
Now44.5
Down 1 since the open
Line movement
Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot
Opened TB -1.5 · now CAR -3 · moved 4.5 toward CARmodel CAR -5.5
model CAR -5.5
Opened 45.5 · now 44.5 · moved 1 downmodel 44
model 44
Openline modelNow
Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: CAR by 6.8 pts (open +1.5, now -3). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 67.6% of the 37 games where the line moved (44 at that gap), but those sides covered 27.3% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.
Line context
Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 53% (204 games)ⓘ
Moved onto 3The team the line moved toward covered 50% (24 games since 2025)ⓘ
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:34 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenTB -1.5
CurrentCAR -3
Total45.5 → 44.5
Last update6:34 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Books
9 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 TB |  CAR | Over | Under | TB | CAR | |
| BetMGMMGM | +3-118 | -3-102 | 44.5-108 | 44.5-110 | +130 | -155 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | +3-118 | -3-102 | 44.5-107 | 44.5-113 | +129 | -149 |
| BetRiversBetRivers | +3-113 | -3-108 | 44-114 | 44-107 | +128 | -155 |
| BetUSBetUS | +3-120 | -3+100 | 44.5-110 | 44.5-110 | +129 | -150 |
| BovadaBovada | +3-120 | -3+100 | 44.5-110 | 44.5-110 | +130 | -150 |
| DraftKingsDK | +3-115 | -3-105 | 44.5-108 | 44.5-112 | +130 | -155 |
| FanDuelFD | +2.5+100 | -2.5-122 | 44.5-110 | 44.5-110 | +132 | -156 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | +3-115 | -3+104 | 44.5-104 | 44.5-110 | +129 | -149 |
| MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag | +3-120 | -3+100 | 44.5-110 | 44.5-110 | +125 | -153 |
1st-half prices
7 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | CAR | Over | Under | |
| BetMGMMGM | +2.5-108 | -2.5-110 | 11.5-1100 | 11.5+675 |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | +2.5-105 | -2.5-115 | 22-110 | 22-110 |
| BetRiversBetRivers | +1.5-114 | -1.5-109 | 22.5-122 | 22.5-103 |
| BetUSBetUS | +2.5-105 | -2.5-115 | 22-110 | 22-110 |
| BovadaBovada | +2.5-105 | -2.5-115 | 21.5-110 | 21.5-110 |
| DraftKingsDK | +2.5-112 | -2.5-108 | 21.5-112 | 21.5-108 |
| FanDuelFD | +1.5-110 | -1.5-110 | 22.5-110 | 22.5-110 |
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Spread
TB +3CAR -3Bets34%
66%
Money31%
69%
Winner
TBCARBets16%
84%
Money13%
87%
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like CAR as a 3-point home favorite against TB, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 5 went over the total.
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Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
5 of 1050%
Normal range · usually 48%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.1 against an average line of 3.1; 44.7 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest |
-3.5 | 27–19 | W | O42.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & total |
-1.5 | 16–15 | L | U43.5 |
| Close |
2025 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form |
-3.5 | 26–15 | W | U41.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread |
-2.5 | 32–20 | W | O39.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 14 · close · similar rest & total |
-3.5 | 18–30 | L | O45.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & season form |
-4.5 | 47–24 | W | O42.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 13 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-4.5 | 20–17 | L | U45.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 6 · loose · similar situation & season form |
-3.5 | 30–19 | W | O46.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation & spread |
-2.5 | 21–13 | W | U43.5 |
| Loose |
2025 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & situation |
-1.5 | 22–16 | W | U44.5 |
KC
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SF
ARI
NYJ
MIA
SEA
CHI
GBHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Model view
Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Carolina Panthers 62%
Projected TB 20 – CAR 24 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest
Model line
CAR -5.5
Market CAR -3
Against the spread
No lean
Just under the 2.5-point lean threshold (the gap shown is rounded to a half point).
Total
No lean
Model 44 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.
How the model gets there (points from CAR’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadCAR rating edge+1.9+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap+1.6=Model marginCAR by 5.3
TotalScoring ratings46.5+Wind 11 mph−2.4=Model total44.1
Signals
The data signal, and 4 trends and market moves behind it
Moderate Carolina Panthers ATS trend
Moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers ATS struggles (1-5)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers have covered only 17% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1-3 ATS as an underdog
Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 69-56 (55%)
Market moved toward Carolina Panthers
4.5 pts (TB -1.5 → CAR -3). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield questionable
The model takes points off a team whose usual starter is out or doubtful; the market line may already reflect it.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
In 510 games with totals 41.5–47.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 2-8 20% | 1-9 10% | 4-6 40% |
| CAR | 4-6 40% | 6-4 60% | 3-7 30% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 since 2023
TB 23–25 CAR
CAR leads · 48 games since 2002 · TB has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 3 2025 | Carolina Panthers 14 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 16 | TB -3 | CAR W |
| Dec 21 2025 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 @ Carolina Panthers 23 | TB -3 | CAR W |
| Dec 29 2024 | Carolina Panthers 14 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48 | TB -9.5 | TB W |
| Dec 1 2024 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26 @ Carolina Panthers 23 | TB -6.5 | CAR W |
| Jan 7 2023 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 @ Carolina Panthers 0 | TB -4.5 | TB W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
TB−0.2 →−1.2▼ 1.0#19
CAR−1.6 →+0.7▲ 2.3#13
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW6
TBLonger bar = better
CAR#27
Offense
CAR better ▶#8
#9
Defense
◀ TB better#17
−0.5 #22
Turnovers
CAR better ▶+0.6 #9
63 plays #13
Pace
CAR faster ▶68 plays #2
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When TB has the ball| TB off | CAR def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 19.8 #25 | 24.6 #21 | Even |
| Yards / play | 4.66 #25 | 5.38 #18 | CAR |
| EPA / play | −0.13 #29 | −0.01 #17 | CAR |
| Success rate | 39% #27 | 42% #12 | CAR |
When CAR has the ball| CAR off | TB def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 29.2 #4 | 23.0 #17 | CAR |
| Yards / play | 5.91 #7 | 5.01 #9 | Even |
| EPA / play | +0.12 #6 | −0.09 #4 | Even |
| Success rate | 44% #14 | 41% #5 | TB |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
TB scoring against the CAR defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB scored | 3.2 #25 | 6.2 #17 | 9.3 #23 | 6.7 #8 | 3.8 #31 | 10.5 #24 |
| CAR allowed | 3.4 #12 | 10.0 #31 | 13.4 #26 | 3.4 #7 | 7.8 #21 | 11.2 #11 |
CAR scoring against the TB defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR scored | 5.4 #7 | 9.2 #7 | 14.6 #5 | 8.6 #3 | 6.0 #22 | 14.6 #7 |
| TB allowed | 5.7 #26 | 6.0 #12 | 11.7 #18 | 3.3 #5 | 6.8 #16 | 10.2 #8 |
Game conditions
Before kickoff
Home field
CAR +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
65° · 11 mph
Wind trims 2.4 pts off the total
Rest
TB7d
CAR7d
Even
Tempo
Fast 131 plays
slowavg 125fast
Injury report
ESPN, refreshed every 20 minutes
Tampa Bay Buccaneers| WR | Emeka Egbuka | Concussion | Out |
| OT | Luke Goedeke | Calf | Out |
| S | Antoine Winfield Jr. | Ribs | Out |
| QB | Baker Mayfield | Thumb | Questionable |
Carolina Panthers| LB | Jaelan Phillips | Hamstring | Out |
| LB | Thomas Incoom | Calf | Out |
| OT | Monroe Freeling | Knee | Questionable |
News & sentiment
ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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ATL
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IND @ 
MIN
CIN @ 
BAL
NYG @ 
DEN @ 
DET